Market Impact Weather

Mostly Favorable Brazil Pattern

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Favorable crop conditions in Brazil, and limited rainfall chances in the Southern Plains' wheat areas are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

MIDWEST RAIN AND SNOW

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a combination of rain and snow during the early part to mid-week in the Midwest. Eastern and southern Midwest areas will see light-to-moderate rain, with no significant concerns for the soft red winter wheat crop. Western and northern Midwest areas have light-to-moderate snow and some freezing precipitation, with transportation disruption and livestock stress. There is no heavy snowfall expected at this time.

MORE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYNESS

In the Southern Plains, dryness and episodes of cold during this winter has increased concerns for wheat, especially through western growing areas. There is a slight chance for showers to improve soil moisture in Oklahoma and northern Texas during the next seven-to-10 days. However, there is little chance for improvement from Kansas northward, especially through the western areas. Wide temperature swings may also stress the overwintering crop.

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NEW COLD WAVE FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A secondary surge of very cold weather appears likely for the middle to the late part of this week in the Northern Plains. This new round of bitter-cold conditions will increase stress to livestock. Ahead of the cold wave, snow may cause some transportation concerns. However, a major snow storm is not indicated at this time.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE BRAZIL TREND

Brazil continues to have favorable conditions for developing soybeans except in the far northeast (western Bahia) where hot and dry conditions will affect production. Early harvest in Mato Grosso again has favorable conditions.

SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

In central Argentina, episodes of scattered rains and only brief hot spells will favor development of corn and soybeans. Dryness concerns remain for sunflower areas of the southwest due to below-normal December and early January rainfall and above-normal temperatures. Early-week showers are indicated even in this drier region.

LIMITED UKRAINE COLD WAVE IMPACT

Ukraine saw temperatures as cold as minus 10 Fahrenheit in northwest areas during the weekend period. Some damage may have occurred to winter wheat, due to snow cover of no more than 3 inches (7 centimeters). Temperatures were not as low with much deeper snow cover over east Ukraine and the Black Soils region; thus, damage potential to winter wheat appears to be minimal.

HEAVY SOUTH AFRICA RAIN

In South Africa, moderate to very heavy thunderstorms were reported during the weekend. This should maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for the crop and is favorable, except in areas of local flooding.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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