Inserting Statistics Canada's seeded acre estimates into the April Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada forecasts for 2019-20 results in forecasts for barley, corn, oats, peas and all-wheat production exceeding both 2018 production and the five-year average production.
For example, Canada's barley production would be estimated at 9.36 million metric tons, given Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's estimate of 90% of seeded acres harvested and an average yield of 66.7 bushels per acre expected, up only slightly from the average yield forecast for 2018. This would be the largest production achieved in six years and would be close to 1 mmt more that estimated in 2018.
This analysis would project Canada's all-wheat production at 33.6 mmt, up 5.8% or 1.8 mmt from 2018 and would be the largest production achieved in six years. An increase in wheat production (excluding durum) is expected to offset a drop in acres dedicated to durum, with 2019 yield pegged just higher than 2018 levels based on historical averages. As seen on the attached chart, this is the largest year-over-year increase in volume seen across the major crops.
Given a combination of an 18.8% reduction in the area to be planted to durum, forecast production using AAFC estimates would indicate that production would fall below the 2018 volume harvested and the five-year average to 5.2 mmt. This would be roughly 567,000 metric tons below 2018 levels and well-below the 7.762 mmt produced in the 2016-17 crop year.
Other crops where forecast production falls short of production volumes achieved in 2018-19 and the previous five-year averages include canola, lentils and soybeans. For example, using AAFC's estimate of 99.2% of the area harvested and average historic yield of 41 bpa, down only slightly from the yield realized in 2018, canola production would reach 18.9 mmt. This would be the lowest production seen in four years.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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