Commodities Market Impact Weather

Unfavorable Wet Pattern Continues in Extended Outlook

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , DTN/Progressive Farmer Associate Content Manager
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Drier for a few days in the western Midwest and Northern Plains, wet conditions and more rain in the extended outlook to slow planting and fieldwork in the Eastern Corn Belt, and heavy tropical rains for southeast Texas and the eastern U.S., are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

A trough of low pressure is located near the lower Texas and northeastern Mexico coasts. While development of this system is not expected, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of eastern Mexico, southeastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley during the next few days. Flooding appears likely, especially over the upper coast of Texas into south Louisiana.

WESTERN MIDWEST SEES DRIER, WARMER PERIOD

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for drier, warmer weather lasting a few days that will help improve planting conditions in the western Midwest. However, after that time, showers and some rain redevelops, and there are indications of near- to above-normal rainfall during the six- to 10-day period as well. Southern and eastern areas of the Midwest continue wet with added rainfall during the five- to seven-day period. Planting progress likely continues slow.

WARMER, DRIER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, above-normal temperatures and only light rain will allow planting of corn and soybeans while favoring development of spring wheat and oats for a few more days. Light-to-moderate rain develops in the west and spreads east Friday and Saturday, followed by much cooler weather. This would again delay spring fieldwork.

WET CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Central and Southern Plains, wet weather and conditions will increase disease pressure on developing wheat. Quality issues can be expected. Wet conditions will affect the early harvest. Wet weather and wet conditions will continue to delay and disrupt planting of corn, soybean and sorghum. Lower temperatures return to the region during the six- to 10-day period.

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HEAVY RAINS FOR SOUTHEAST U.S.

In the Southeastern U.S., a disturbance off the Gulf of Mexico is expected to spread heavy rain and some wind into southeast Texas and then into the Delta within the next one to three days. Flooding may occur. This is unfavorable for recently planted crops in the region.

SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR CANADA'S PRAIRIES

For the Canadian Prairies, later this week, there appears to be a good chance for needed rains to occur in north and central Alberta, north and southeast Saskatchewan and in Manitoba. This will favor development of crops and ease dryness concerns. Lower temperatures follow, which may need to be watched. In southern Alberta, southwest and central Saskatchewan, the rain forecast is not as certain. There should be showers, but it is not certain there will be enough to ease concerns. This will be watched.

FAVORABLE BRAZIL HARVEST TREND

There are no significant concerns for filling and maturing second-crop corn in Mato Grosso and Goias in Brazil. Recent rain in Parana may slow the harvest of second-crop corn and the planting of winter wheat in that area. However, it looks drier in this area as well during the next seven days.

HOT, DRY IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, there are mostly favorable conditions for crops in western Ukraine due to generous May rainfall and no significant hot weather. Showers have recently helped improve conditions in southern and eastern Ukraine and southern Russia, but due to very warm weather, improvement was limited. These areas look to be drier and warmer than normal during the next 10 days. A variable temperature pattern with added rain will favor spring wheat in northern Kazakhstan and southern Siberia during this period.

MIXED OUTLOOK FOR AUSTRALIA

The eastern wheat areas of Australia have recently had some light rain, but should be drier during the next seven days. The western wheat areas are expected to see episodes of showers and rain during the next five to seven days. Rainfall may become heavy. Conditions are improving for late planting and early developing winter wheat in the area.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE FOR NORTH CHINA

In North China, it's a mostly favorable weather pattern for development of early planted corn and soybeans with some periodic delays to seasonal fieldwork due to wet and cool conditions at times.

RAIN IN CENTRAL CHINA

Central China may see needed moderate-to-heavy rain within the next 24-48 hours, especially central and south areas. This would favor late-filling wheat and developing summer crops. It would be unfavorable for mature rapeseed and early harvesting and it would delay planting of summer crops.

MONSOON UPDATE IN INDIA

As of June 5, the Indian Met Department showed the leading edge of the monsoon over southern of Sri Lanka. This is running at least 10 days late. Satellite pictures have shown a significant decrease in coverage of rains across the Bay of Bengal during the past two days while the activity continues in the southern Arabian Sea. The activity over southern India has diminished recently. Rains continue in the northeast in the vicinity of Bangladesh. Rain will likely occur in Sri Lanka during the next one to three days.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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Elaine Shein

Elaine Shein
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