Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A blizzard and major spring storm with heavy snow, heavy rain, ice accumulations and damaging winds in parts of the Midwest and Plains, and mostly favorable conditions for South America, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

MAJOR BLIZZARD/STORM

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a blizzard and major spring storm to bring heavy rain then snow and blowing snow that will affect Wyoming, South Dakota, west and north Nebraska and southwest, central and northeast Minnesota during Wednesday or Thursday, followed by well-below-normal temperatures. A foot to 2 feet of snow is possible in eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. The National Weather Service said some areas in those two states may reach as high as 30 inches.

Strong winds combine with heavy snow to lead to blizzard conditions. This weather greatly increases stress to livestock while bringing travel and transport to a standstill in whiteout conditions. This snow and blowing snow may extend to northeast Colorado and possibly northwest Kansas for a time.

NWS has said southeast Iowa and southwest Iowa have a risk of severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening that could be capable of large hail, damaging winds and isolated thunderstorms. There is also ice accumulations possible near the Iowa and Minnesota border anywhere from 0.01 to 0.50 inch through Thursday.

MAJOR RAIN, SNOW AND WIND FOR MIDWEST

A major rain and wind event appears likely for the Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. A major snow and wind event is also likely in the northwest areas. This affects travel and transport in the region. This is likely to lead to flooding of fields and an increased risk for a new surge in river levels in the region, especially the middle Missouri river and the upper Mississippi river. Significant fieldwork delays may continue through the end of this month due to an active rainfall pattern.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION, COLDER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Rain and then heavy snow, along with blizzard conditions, will affect the southern portion of the Northern Plains crop belt but mostly misses key growing areas of North Dakota and the Canadian Prairies. Heavy precipitation also remains mostly south of the Red River Basin. The Red River remains in flood stage due to melting snow, but this system does not look to add to the problem. In the seven-day outlook, the Northern Plains will see variable temperatures, with some areas experiencing below-normal temperatures.

MAJOR STORM TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, there is adequate soil moisture for developing winter wheat. A major spring storm will affect northern areas during the middle of this week with the potential for moderate-to-heavy snow and wind in western Nebraska, northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas. This will put significant stress on livestock. Areas outside of these locations will see strong, damaging winds due to this storm but little precipitation. This may mean blowing dust for many areas.

HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN DELTA

Heavy rainfall occurred in the Delta region last weekend. Signs point to another extreme rain event next weekend. These systems have included and will include severe weather. The region has mostly surplus soil moisture with a significant risk of severe flooding. Delays to seasonal fieldwork appear likely.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE FOR BRAZIL

For Brazil, scattered showers and thundershowers occurred yesterday in Goias, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais. Recent showers and cooler temperatures will favor development of second-crop corn and later development of sugarcane and coffee in central Brazil crop areas. Drier weather from southern Parana southward to Rio Grande do Sul helps improve conditions for the harvest of soybeans, especially after the rains in that area late last week.

MOSTLY DRY FOR ARGENTINA

Argentina will have mostly dry weather this week. Conditions are favorable for maturing crops and harvesting. There may be some decrease in soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting next month. Showers may occur this weekend in Cordoba and Santa Fe provinces.

FAVORABLE SHOWERS FOR NORTH CHINA

The North China Plain had moderate-to-locally-heavy showers and thundershowers through key winter crop areas, including Henan and Shandong, during the past 24 hours. This will be highly favorable to reproductive wheat and timely, following the typically dry winter period, especially in northern areas.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(AG)

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