Commodities Market Impact Weather

Major Midweek Storm Will Significantly Delay Fieldwork

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , DTN/Progressive Farmer Associate Content Manager
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A major midweek storm with heavy snow, rain and wind leading to significant fieldwork delays in the Midwest; flood concerns stretching from the northeast Plains to Louisiana; and a mostly favorable outlook for South America are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

MAJOR MIDWEST STORM

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a major rain and wind event for the Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. A major snow and wind event is also likely in the northwest areas. The storm will feature heavy snow -- with 6 inches or more across most of the area, although some areas could see 8 to 18 inches of snow. There are also areas of the Midwest that could get heavy rain with this system, 2 to 3 inches or possibly heavier. High winds are expected with this system, leading to blowing snow and whiteout conditions that will make travel and transport almost impossible in almost blizzard-like conditions. This is likely to lead to flooding of fields and an increased risk for a new surge in river levels in the region, especially the middle Missouri river and the upper Mississippi river. Significant fieldwork delays may continue through the end of this month due to an active rainfall pattern.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION, COLDER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, heavy rain, then snow and blowing snow, will hit South Dakota this week, followed by well-below-normal temperatures. This greatly increases stress to livestock. This snow and blowing snow may extend to western Nebraska, possibly northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas. It will be drier through the Red River region as most of the precipitation appears to stay south. However, the Red river continues to rise with a peak slowing moving northward toward the Canadian border.

MAJOR STORM TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, there is adequate soil moisture for developing winter wheat. A major spring storm will affect northern areas during the middle of this week with the potential for moderate-to-heavy snow and wind in western Nebraska, northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas. This will put significant stress on livestock. This snow and wind storm also will extend northward through Wyoming and South Dakota livestock areas.

The weather models are indicating a major storm to hit next weekend, with the potential for heavy rains and thunderstorms and likely severe weather from the southeast Plains across the lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio River valleys during the six- to 10-day period. Heavy rain or thunderstorms could extend north into the south and east Midwest as well.

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HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN DELTA

Heavy rainfall occurred in the Delta region again during the weekend. Signs point to another extreme rain event next weekend. These systems have included and will include severe weather. The region has mostly surplus soil moisture with a significant risk of severe flooding. Delays to seasonal fieldwork appear likely.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE FOR BRAZIL

For Brazil, scattered showers and thundershowers occurred from Parana northward to Mato Grosso, Goias, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais during the weekend. Lower temperatures also developed. This will favor development of second-crop corn and later development of sugarcane and coffee. Drier weather from southern Parana southward to Rio Grande do Sul helps improve conditions for the harvest of soybeans, after the rains in that area late last week. Drier weather in the southern soybean belt continues this week.

MOSTLY DRY FOR ARGENTINA

Argentina will have mostly dry weather this week and into next weekend. These are favorable conditions for maturing crops and harvesting. There may be some decrease in soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting next month.

DRY TREND IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, winter wheat is breaking dormancy and greening up in southern areas. The forecast suggests that the recent drying trend over eastern Ukraine will continue during the next 10 days. There may be showers within this period but probably only light showers and net drying of soils. There is increasing stress to development of winter wheat over southeast Ukraine.

DRY TREND FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

In Australia, there were moderate-to-heavy thunderstorms through New South Wales and southern Queensland during late March. This provided a much-needed boost to soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting. The area has been under severe drought conditions for a while. The forecast continues to suggest that the next 10 days will be mostly dry with a variable temperature pattern. This is likely to reduce or deplete the soil moisture.

FAVORABLE SHOWERS FOR NORTH CHINA

The North China Plain is expected to see moderate-to-locally-heavy showers and thundershowers early this week. This will be highly favorable to reproductive wheat and timely, following the typically dry winter period, especially in northern areas.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa had widespread showers and thunderstorms during the weekend with more possible during the coming week. Rainfall might favor late-filling corn and late-developing sugarcane, but it will be unfavorable to highly unfavorable for maturing crops and early harvesting.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(AG)

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Elaine Shein

Elaine Shein
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