Commodities Market Impact Weather

Rain Delays for Midwest Fieldwork, Warmer for Southern Plains

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , DTN/Progressive Farmer Associate Content Manager
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Rain-delaying fieldwork this week in the Midwest, possible storms with heavy rain and severe weather in the six-to-10-day outlook, and mostly favorable conditions for South American crops are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

ABOVE-NORMAL RAINS IN MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for near-to-above-normal rainfall during the five-day and six-to-10-day periods. This is expected to maintain conditions too wet for early spring fieldwork. This includes the risk of a strong storm next Wednesday into Thursday, forming over the northern portion of the Central Plains and track east-northeast through the western Midwest and the northern part of the eastern Midwest. If verified, this is likely to produce strong winds and moderate to heavy rainfall from South Dakota and Nebraska across the western Midwest and the northern part of the eastern Midwest. This threatens another round of flooding on the rivers if this storm verifies.

MOSTLY DRY TREND FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, there is a slight chance of rain, up to half an inch, occurring in northwest Minnesota this weekend. This, along with projected warmer weather, may lead to increased melting of snow cover and some flooding along the Red River. Except for this system, the drier weather pattern will continue during the 10-day period.

WARMER FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, favorable soil moisture conditions are expected to continue for the developing winter wheat crop. Warmer weather during the next five to six days will promote more rapid development of the wheat crop. A turn to cooler weather after that might slow growth rates somewhat.

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MOSTLY FAVORABLE FOR BRAZIL

For Brazil, conditions are mostly favorable for second-crop corn from Parana north to Mato Grosso and Goias at this time. Recent warm to hot weather should ease as showers have developed in the area this week. Rainfall may increase in the Rio Grande do Sul area during the next day or two leading to some slowing in the harvest of soybeans. However, this is not expected to be a major concern.

DRIER TREND AFTER TODAY FOR ARGENTINA

A cold-front passage today will produce scattered showers in central Argentina. Drier otherwise during the seven-day period, with temperatures mostly above normal. These are favorable conditions for maturing crops and harvesting. There will be some decrease in soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting next month.

DRY TREND IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, winter wheat is breaking dormancy and greening up. The forecast suggests that the recent drying trend over eastern Ukraine will continue during the next 10 days. There may be showers within this period but probably only light showers and net drying of soils. There is increasing stress to development of winter wheat over southeast Ukraine.

DRIER, WARMER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

In Australia, there were moderate-to-heavy thunderstorms through New South Wales and southern Queensland during the weekend. Rainfall was a half inch to 2 inches and locally heavier. This provides a much-needed boost to soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting. Wheat planting can begin in Queensland during April, but normally holds off in New South Wales until May. The area has been under severe drought conditions for a while. The forecast suggests that the region might see near-to-above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall during the next 10 days. More rain will be needed to continue to ease drought conditions.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR NORTH CHINA

Mainly dry weather or only a few light showers are expected in the winter wheat areas of the North China Plain during the next six to 10 days. Wheat is reported to be in reproduction and needs rain to supplement irrigation at this crop stage. Soil moisture and irrigation should be adequate to surplus in winter rapeseed areas of the Yangtze River Valley area at this time because the fall and winter precipitation was above normal. This area may see periodic rainy weather during the next 10 days. This may be unfavorable for mature rapeseed and will likely delay the harvest.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

Showers and thundershowers along with cooler weather have occurred early this week with more possible at the end of the week in the maize and sugarcane areas of South Africa. Rainfall favors late-filling corn and late-developing sugarcane, but may be somewhat unfavorable for early maturing crops and any early harvesting.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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Elaine Shein

Elaine Shein
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