DTN Midday Livestock Comments

Hog Futures Rally on Trade Hopes

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN file photo by Russ Quinn)
General Comments

Hog futures have continued to surge higher with triple digit gains seen in most contracts. May futures are leading the market higher with $3.75 per cwt gains. Cattle markets are under moderate pressure focusing on pressure in feeder cattle trade. Corn futures are lower in light trade. May corn futures are 1 1/2 cents lower. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. Dow Jones is 102 points lower with Nasdaq up 2 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Strong market losses have developed Wednesday morning while most of the attention has moved back to the escalating hog complex. This has not only moved the emphasis off of recent market support seen in March, but also tested short term support levels, as April contracts have continued to move below $126 per cwt while June futures have shifted below $119 per cwt with an 80 cent loss. The concern that beef values may continue to slowly erode or stay steady at best is creating pressure through the entire complex. Cash cattle are still untraded, but the fact that a few scattered bids have developed, and asking prices are seen is helping to move the process along Wednesday morning. Bids are seen at $124 in the South, while dressed bids in the North are seen at $203 to $204 per cwt. Asking prices remain at $127 to $128 live and $207 to $208 dressed. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are mixed, $0.54 higher (select) and down $0.23 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 72 total loads reported (44 loads of choice cuts, 12 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 17 loads of ground beef).

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FEEDER CATTLE:

Strong underlying pressure is developing in feeder cattle trade with deferred futures holding triple-digit losses. There is expected to be some growing concerns about renewed support in grain trade which is adding to overall pressure in feeder and live cattle trade. Feeder cattle futures are not anywhere near short term support levels seen in March, allowing additional pressure due to the technical pressure in live cattle trade.

LEAN HOGS:

Follow through buying is seen Wednesday as traders focus on the potential that a trade deal is getting close ahead of the next round of talks taking place this week. May futures, despite being so lightly traded have posted expanded trading limits, moving to $3.60 per cwt late morning. Most other contracts remain $1.50 to $2.50 per cwt higher as traders expect increased sales to develop over the next few weeks to China. Cash prices are higher on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price added $0.41 at $75.69 per cwt with the range from $67.00 to $78.00, on 5,736 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork values eroded during morning trade following the recent pressure in cash activity. Pork cutouts fell $0.40 per cwt at $81.31 per cwt with 156 loads traded. Lean hog index for 3/30 is $76.78 up 0.98, with a projected two-day index is $77.70 up $0.92.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

(CZ)

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Rick Kment