Commodities Market Impact Weather

Continued Fieldwork Delays in Midwest

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , DTN/Progressive Farmer Associate Content Manager
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Precipitation and saturated soils continuing to delay fieldwork in the Midwest, warmer conditions for the Southern Plains winter wheat crop, and generally favorable conditions for Brazil's second crops, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

CONTINUED FLOOD CONCERNS IN MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for moderate-to-heavy rainfall from this past weekend in the southern and eastern Midwest to keep soils saturated and rivers flooding. There are still no indications of when producers will be able to get out into the fields to prepare for the 2019 growing season. Models suggest near- to above-normal rainfall during the five-day and six- to 10-day periods. Temperatures vary somewhere during the next 10 days.

DRIER TREND FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, little precipitation is expected during the next 10 days. This will allow a more orderly snowmelt in the Red River Valley. However, flooding is still expected in this river basin because of the significant amounts of snow still on the ground.

FAVORABLE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

In the Southern Plains, favorable soil moisture conditions are expected to continue for the developing winter wheat crop. Much cooler weather at this time will somewhat slow development of wheat, but it should turn much warmer during the next few to several days. In the five-day forecast, there are some chances for showers. In the six- to 10-day outlook, precipitation is expected to be near to below normal west, and near to above normal in the east.

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MOSTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN BRAZIL

Rain, showers and thundershowers are forecast to develop through the southern crop belt of Brazil during the Thursday-to-Friday time frame, followed by lower temperatures. This will be somewhat unfavorable for the maturing crop and it will likely slow harvest progress somewhat. Hot weather in the central Brazil crop region today will give way to increasing showers during the coming days. These conditions are still seen as mostly favorable for development of Brazil's second-crop corn.

SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

Showers and thundershowers through west-central and north Argentina and Paraguay during the past 48 hours have been locally heavy. This likely delays the corn harvest and the early harvest of soybeans in these locations. At this time, it's a more favorable weather pattern for mature corn, soybeans and sunflower and for these harvests in the key growing areas of Santa Fe and Buenos Aires.

VARIABLE TEMPERATURES IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, winter wheat prospects are currently favorable across the region due to a wet fall and winter, though developing short-term dryness over eastern Ukraine bears watching. Winter wheat is breaking dormancy and greening up. A variable temperature pattern at this time shows not much chance for meaningful rainfall during the next 10 days.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA RAINFALL

In Australia, there were moderate-to-heavy thunderstorms through New South Wales and southern Queensland during the weekend. Rainfall was a half inch to 2 inches and locally heavier. This provides a much-needed boost to soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting. Wheat planting can begin in Queensland during April, but normally holds off in New South Wales until May. The area has been under severe drought conditions for a while. These rains likely affected any unharvested sorghum and cotton during this period.

COOLER, UNSETTLED WEEK FOR CENTRAL EUROPE

Central Europe's rain during March, when combined with late-fall/early winter rain, has improved the outlook for winter wheat and rapeseed crops this spring, especially following last summer's drought. The region has been drier, warmer recently, but should turn cooler and be more unsettled during this week.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR NORTH CHINA

Mainly dry weather is expected to continue across the North China Plain during the next six to 10 days. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall will be needed to support increasing development of winter wheat, especially through climatologically drier north and west areas. Soil moisture and irrigation should be adequate to surplus in winter rapeseed areas of the Yangtze River Valley area at this time because the fall and winter precipitation was above normal. This area may see periodic rainy weather during the next 10 days. This may be unfavorable for mature rapeseed and will likely delay the harvest.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

The maize and sugarcane areas of South Africa were warm to hot during most of last week, increasing stress to late-filling crops, while favoring early maturing crops. Scattered showers and thundershowers have developed overnight with more showers likely during the balance of this week. This will help ease stress to late-filling maize and sugarcane, while causing minor fieldwork delays, as well as delay early harvest efforts.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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Elaine Shein

Elaine Shein
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