DTN Closing Livestock Comments

Hog Futures Advance on Demand Strength

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN file photo)

GENERAL COMMENTS: Early softness in lean hog futures Monday gave way to triple-digit gains by closing bell. Despite not expanding trading limits, the April futures contract was up $2.22 per cwt to close above $71 per cwt. Mixed cattle trade left many traders unsettled, but the ability for most contracts to advance higher helped to spark some underlying support. Cash markets were undeveloped with new showlists generally mixed. Numbers were steady to lower everywhere but Texas. Asking prices and bids are not expected to develop until midweek or later. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report was $1.81 higher ($48-$58.50, weighted average $55.73) on 7,963 head sold. Corn futures were lower in light activity with May down 1 3/4 cents per bushel. The Dow Jones Index was 69 points higher with the Nasdaq up 28 points.

LIVE CATTLE: Live cattle futures were mixed, settling $0.77 lower to $0.65 higher. Firm pressure in the front-month April contract seemed to erase market support through the entire complex. Live cattle continue to trade at the top end of the recent trading range, but it's very evident interest to move above resistance of $130 per cwt is lacking. Prices could continue to shift back and forth within a moderate range over the near future. Beef cut-outs: higher, up $0.87 (select, $218.21) to $1.34 (choice, $228.33) with good demand and moderate offerings, 74 loads (37 loads of choice cuts, 14 loads of select cuts, 10 load of trimmings, 12 loads of coarse grinds).

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TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Cash market activity is not expected to develop until the last half of the week with asking prices and bids still undeveloped at this point.

FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle futures saw limited direction Monday with traders concerned about production in flooded areas of the Midwest. Futures closed $0.62 lower to $0.42 higher. Light-to-moderate pressure developed in April and May contracts Monday as traders continue to focus on narrow, directionless shifts in live cattle trade. CME cash feeder index for 3/15 is $137.50, down $0.15.

LEAN HOGS: Lean hog futures scored triple-digit gains of $1.00 to $2.22. Despite limited early support and questions about whether the $12-per-cwt rally had ran its course, buyers stepped back into the market at midday, catapulting the April contract above $71 on a $2.22-per-cwt rally. Traders are focusing on the potential for additional pork-buying activity, which may help to solidify additional commercial and noncommercial interest through the week. Pork cutouts continue to advance with triple-digit gains seen in all primal cuts. Pork cutout values added $3.50 per cwt, moving to $72.39 per cwt on 303 loads. CME cash lean index for 3/14 is $55.40, up $1.27. DTN Projected lean index for 3/15 $56.54, up $1.14.

TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL:

Steady to $2. Follow-through support is expected to develop through cash hog trade as packers continue to aggressively source hogs given the recent support in futures trade and upward shifts seen in pork values. Tuesday slaughter is expected at 471,000 head.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

(CZ)

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Rick Kment