DTN Before The Bell Grains

Morning CME Globex Update:

Corn and wheat are a little higher, soybeans a little lower early Thursday as the northwestern Plains contend with what may be the final blizzard of the season. Outside markets are mixed to slightly bearish with the June U.S. dollar trading higher.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Lower
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Lower
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

May corn is up 1/2 cent early Thursday with blizzard conditions in the northwestern U.S. Plains, areas of flooding in the western Corn Belt and high winds expected throughout the western Plains later Thursday. Once this storm passes, the forecast looks drier the next ten days, but field conditions are still a long way from being able to talk about planting. Corn prices are relatively high at the Gulf, but it is more due to transportation problems on the Mississippi River than a sign of strong demand for U.S. corn. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's sales and shipments of corn totaled14.6 mb and 30.9 mb respectively, a neutral to bearish overall pace in 2018-19. For now, the trend in cash corn is currently down with plenty of uncertainty as to how planting will go in early 2019. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.38 Wednesday, priced 29 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest price in over three months. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.24 and most commodities outside of grains are trading lower.

Soybeans:

May soybeans are down 2 cents early Thursday after Bloomberg news reported the presidents of the U.S. and China will probably not meet in late March as the Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month. In other words, there is still no significant news of a trade deal with China and the outcome remains as uncertain as ever. Meanwhile, the International Grains Council said in a tweet that they expect Brazil to export a record high 9.3 mmt (342 mb) of soybeans in March, which doesn't leave much room for the U.S. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 70.2 mb and 30.1 mb respectively, still on a bearish pace in 2018-19. For now, the trend in cash soybeans remains sideways with support from commercial net longs, while the market waits to hear on the status of trade with China. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.14 Wednesday, priced 87 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

May K.C. wheat is trading up 1 cent early Thursday, still holding a small gain on the week, thanks to Tuesday's big, unexpected rally. Thursday's weather map shows high winds in western Kansas and the Texas Panhandle that will also blow across the eastern Midwest into SRW wheat territory. The forecast turns drier for much of the central U.S. after Thursday and that will actually be beneficial to field conditions in many areas. Tuesday's 269 mb estimate for the SRW wheat crop from the North American Millers is down from 286 mb a year ago and is part of a larger trend of dwindling wheat production in the U.S., exacerbated by difficult planting conditions last fall. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 9.7 mb and 27.3 mb, still struggling to reach USDA's new export estimate of 965 million bushels. With U.S. wheat supplies currently plentiful and the uncertainty of a new growing season ahead, the trends in cash HRW and SRW wheat remain down, while the trend in cash HRS wheat is holding sideways. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.19 Wednesday, 18 cents under the May contract and up from its lowest prices in a year. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.22, also up from its lowest prices in a year. Trading in March grain contracts expires early Thursday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Toddon Twitter@ToddHultman1

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