DTN Midday Livestock Comments

Live Cattle Futures Surge Higher

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN file photo by Russ Quinn)
General Comments

Active buyer support has quickly moved into the live cattle complex. This is sparking some additional underlying support through the entire market, allowing for triple-digit gains in nearby live cattle and feeder cattle trade. Hog futures are much more subdued as early spillover support from cattle markets has quickly eroded, leaving prices mixed in a moderate range. Corn markets are higher in light trade. March corn futures are 3/4 cent higher. Stock markets are lower in light trade. Dow Jones is 380 points lower with Nasdaq down 140 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Strong triple-digit gains have flooded into live cattle trade as end-of-year buying support has broken through recent resistance levels, setting contract highs in December and February futures. The underlying fundamental support is based on the expectation that additional beef demand will develop during early 2019, helping to sustain commercial and investment trade activity through the end of the year. Cash cattle bids are still unavailable midday Thursday, likely pushing trade into Friday. With the holiday next week limiting overall procurement, there is expected to be only light to moderate trade seen through the end of the week. But trade should develop before the end of Friday, causing packers to become more aggressive in the near future. Asking prices are seen at $122 live and $195 dressed. Strong futures market moves are likely to help support feedlot managers resolve through the end of the year. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are unreported at this time.

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FEEDER CATTLE:

Strong underlying support in live cattle futures has quickly rekindled buyer support in nearby feeder cattle trade. Although strong support is limited to winter and spring contact months, the focus on the ability to sustain active price support in live cattle futures is helping to spark some additional underlying support through the entire cattle complex. January futures are holding $1.30 per cwt gains moving to $149.40 per cwt with increased underlying support in all nearby trade.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures are holding limited price shifts at midday Thursday following lack of follow-through interest seen during early trade. The focus on lackluster direction in pork values and cash markets through the end of the week is eroding support in spring and summer months. February futures are still holding a 30-cent gain based on strong spill over support in the cattle trade helping to bring buyers back to the table. Limited market direction is expected to be seen through the end of the session, leaving prices mixed in a moderate range. Cash prices are higher on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is $0.59 higher at $45.08 per cwt with the range from $43.00 to $45.41 on 2,306 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork carcass values are unreported at this time. Lean hog index for 12/21 is $53.32, down 0.55, with a projected two-day index is $53.12, down 0.20.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

(CZ)

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Rick Kment