DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

March corn closed up 2 3/4 cents and July corn was up 3 cents. January soybeans closed up 7 1/4 cents and July soybeans were up 7 cents. March K.C. wheat closed up 16 1/2 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 15 3/4 cents and March Minneapolis wheat was up 12 1/4 cents. The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.24 at 96.52. February gold is up $11.70 at $1,255.30 while March silver is up 22 cents and March copper is up 0.0135. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 538 points at 24,410. January crude oil is up $1.28 at $52.77. January heating oil is up $0.0353 while January RBOB gasoline is up $0.0523 and January natural gas is up $0.170.

For the week:

March corn closed up 7 3/4 cents and July was up 7 3/4 cents. January soybeans were up 22 cents while the July was up 20 3/4 cents. March Kansas City wheat was up 11 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 15 1/2 cents, and March Minneapolis wheat was up 5 3/4 cents.

Corn:

March corn closed up 2 3/4 cents at $3.85 1/2 Friday, posting a 7 3/4 cents gain for the week. Much of this week's prices were supported by notions that China may be getting close to making large U.S. ag purchases and that hope is still circulating, but we haven't seen the evidence yet. Friday's weather map has rain from Texas eastward, but the Midwest is mostly dry weather that is expected to continue the next seven days for fields north of Oklahoma in the West and north of the the Ohio River in the East. Early Friday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 46.4 million and 45.9 million bushels, respectively, bullish enough amounts to put total corn shipments up 83% in 2018-19 from a year ago. Mexico and Japan were top buyers. While March corn futures are approaching their highest level in three months, cash corn prices are trending higher, in line with their seasonal tendency for this time of year. There is a good chance the DTN National Corn Index closed near $3.48 Friday, its highest price in six months and 37 cents below the March contract, showing gradual basis improvement. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is down 0.24 after the U.S. Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls increased 155,000 in November, less than expected. The U.S. unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%. January crude oil is trading up $1.28 after OPEC and other producers agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day, starting in January.

Soybeans:

January soybeans closed up 7 1/4 cents at $9.16 3/4 Friday, aided by a progression of hope that China may soon be in the market for U.S. ag products. Thursday's news of the arrest of a Chinese executive caught markets off guard and is a potential threat to the trade talks. But, so far, soybeans maintained their gains for the week, ending up 22 cents from last Friday's close. Meanwhile, more heavy rain amounts are headed for Arkansas and the Mississippi Delta, slamming the door on any hope of getting more soybeans harvested -- if there was any at this late date. USDA's next WASDE report is due Tuesday, Dec. 11 and it is possible a lower soybean crop estimate could show up, but the Jan. 11 report is the more likely place for that to happen. Meanwhile, crop conditions in Brazil remain favorable, supporting talk for another record high in early 2019. For now, January soybeans are approaching the July high of $9.32 3/4, while cash prices are also working gradually higher. The DTN National Soybean Index closed near $8.29 Friday, its highest close in over three months and $0.87 below the January futures contract, showing gradual basis improvement.

Wheat:

March K.C. wheat closed up 16 1/2 cents at $5.12 Friday, also posting a gain of 11 3/4 cents for the week. Friday's bullish excitement largely came from USDA's weekly report of export sales, which showed 26.2 million bushels of sales and 17.7 million bushels shipped. USDA later added 8.2 million bushels (224,000 mt) of U.S. HRW wheat sold to unknown destinations for 2018-19. One reason Friday's exports had such a bullish impact was the market had sagged to new lows in late November and the mood was fairly bearish in HRW wheat when Friday's higher numbers arrived. Even so, U.S. wheat shipments are down 16% in 2018-19 from a year ago. For now, the trends are up for SRW and HRS wheat. For HRW wheat, the trend remains down, but cash prices have had a quick rebound. The DTN National HRW Index likely closed at $4.76 Friday, up from its November low, but down 36 cents from the March futures contract. The DTN National SRW Index likely closed at $4.99 Friday, at its highest prices in three months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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