DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

March corn closed up 4 1/2 cents and July corn was up 4 1/2 cents. January soybeans closed up 7 1/2 cents and July soybeans were up 6 1/4 cents. March Kansas City wheat closed up 7 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 8 cents, and March Minneapolis wheat was up 7 3/4 cents.

The December U.S. dollar index is up 0.48 at 97.17. February gold is down $4.20 at $1,226.20 while March silver is down 16 cents and March copper is down 0.0050. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 68 points at 25,407. January crude oil is down $0.20 at $51.25. January heating oil is up $0.0033 while January RBOB gasoline is down $0.0173 and January natural gas is down $0.107.

For the week:

March corn closed up 7 1/4 cents and July was up 6 cents. January soybeans were up 13 3/4 cents while the July was up 12 1/4 cents. March Kansas City wheat was up 14 1/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 8 1/2 cents, and March Minneapolis wheat was up 4 1/2 cents.

Corn:

March corn closed up 4 1/2 cents at $3.77 3/4 Friday, getting a modest boost on the final day of November with help from news that only two delivery intentions were announced for December corn on first notice day -- a possible sign that the market is not eager to let go of corn at these prices. Friday's weather map was mostly dry early Friday with precipitation expected later in the day and through Saturday. Overall, the weather has been favorable this week for getting final rounds of harvest done and the U.S. should be within a few percentage points of being finished for the year, but USDA's Crop Progress reports have ended for 2018. That leaves exports and South America as the main topics for the next several months. So far, corn exports are active and South America's crops are off to a good start. While the futures market remains stuck in a sideways range, cash corn prices continue to show gradual improvement since their low of Sept. 18, in line with their seasonal tendency. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.32 Thursday, staying above the September low and 41 cents below the March contract, showing gradual basis improvement. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is up 0.48 with the world's investors watching the events in Buenos Aires intently on Friday and Saturday.

Soybeans:

As world leaders convened in Buenos Aires, January soybeans traded modestly higher most of the day and finished up 7 1/2 cents at $8.94 3/4. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer added to the speculation Friday, reported Steve Goldstein at MarketWatch, saying that he (Lighthizer) would be surprised if the dinner between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping "was not a success." Not surprising, rumors have been flying in anticipation of the meeting, and the markets are likely to find out Saturday evening how talks actually went. The central, eastern and southeastern Midwest are expecting more precipitation this weekend, which will add to the challenges of soybean harvest. Meanwhile, the seven-day forecasts remain favorable for crop conditions in Brazil and Argentina. Earlier Friday, USDA said 4.4 million bushels (mb) (120,000 metric tons) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2018-19 -- a small purchase that helps, but much more is needed. For now, January soybeans continue to trade within a sideways range while cash prices are working gradually higher. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.00 Thursday, still up from its lowest price in 11 years and priced $0.87 below the November contract, also showing gradual basis improvement. On first notice day, there were 211 delivery intentions for December soybean meal and 1,188 delivery intentions for December soybean oil.

Wheat:

March K.C. wheat closed up 7 3/4 cents at $5.00 1/4 Friday, showing a surprisingly bullish response from no delivery intentions announced for December contracts in both, K.C. and Chicago. December contracts of each responded even higher, up 20 1/2 cents in K.C. and up 19 1/4 cents in Chicago. It will be interesting to see if the lack of deliveries continues after Friday, but it certainly changed the bearish mood of this month's winter wheat prices, which likely sparked some short-covering. An alternative explanation could be that it is the end of the month, and someone saw an opportunity to catch complacent traders off guard in their short positions, but we were warned by the Dec/Mar Chicago wheat futures spread that bullish interest had been building. Fundamentally, it is difficult to see any significant bullish change for wheat as the export data has been unimpressive, so far. The trends remain sideways for SRW and HRS wheat with prices close to challenging recent highs. For HRW wheat, the trend is still down, even after Friday's higher close. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.46 Thursday, below its July low of $4.50 and down 46 cents from the March contract. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.69 Thursday, up from its July low of $4.51.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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