DTN Closing Grain Comments

Grains Mixed on Light Volume

Todd Hultman
By  Todd Hultman , DTN Lead Analyst
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(DTN illustration by Nick Scalise)

General Comments:

Corn was up 1/2 cent in the December contract and down 1 cent in the July. Soybeans were up 5 1/4 cents in the January contract and up 5 1/4 cents in the July. Wheat closed down 5 1/2 cents in the December Kansas City contract, down 4 3/4 cents in December Chicago, and down 2 1/4 cents in the December Minneapolis contract. The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.33 at 96.81. December gold is up $11.50 at $1,212.90 while December silver is up 12 cents and December copper is down $0.0260. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 208 points at 25,078. December crude oil is up $0.70 at $56.39. December heating oil is up $0.0413 while December RBOB gasoline is up $0.0253 and December natural gas is up 0.708.

Corn:

December corn ended up a half-cent at $3.67 Wednesday, another day of low volume and prices close to their 100-day average. Wednesday's weather map is a bit odd in that, while warmer temperatures are pushing into the western Plains, snow has been falling in Arkansas, one of the states with the most difficult harvest and planting situations. USDA did say late Tuesday 84% of corn was harvested as of Sunday, 3 percentage points below the five-year average, with soybeans struggling to get out first. Iowa and Nebraska have made progress, but are still lagging their usual paces at 83% and 77% finished, respectively. USDA said early Wednesday 8.35 million bushels of corn (212,000 mt) were sold to Mexico for 2018-19, but otherwise sales announcements have come less frequently lately. This time of year is living up to its reputation as being a quieter time of trading and so far, the trend in corn remains gradually up. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.33 Tuesday, well above its September low of $3.00 and priced 34 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is down 0.33 after the U.S. Labor Department reported consumer prices up 2.5% in October from a year ago, as expected. Earlier, RTTNews.com reported real GDP for the European Union was up just 0.2% in the third quarter and up 1.7% from a year ago.

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Soybeans:

January soybeans closed up 5 1/4 cents at $8.83 1/2 Wednesday, also a day of quiet, low volume trading, which received light support from meal and oil prices. Late Tuesday, USDA said 88% of soybeans have been harvested, down from the five-year average of 93%. Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas remain especially troublesome with slow harvest progress and Arkansas getting snow on Wednesday. The rest of the Midwest should do better this week with warmer temperatures expected to accompany mostly dry conditions. Early Wednesday, USDA said 5.4 million bushels (148,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2018-19. It was the second sale this week, but of course, we are still a long way behind last year's pace without China's participation. The uncertainty of trade with China appears to be having a paralyzing effect on prices lately and is keeping the trend in soybeans sideways. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.85 Tuesday, priced $0.93 below the January contract and still well above the September low of $7.12. November soybeans expired Wednesday at $8.70 1/2, roughly 80 cents above where DTN's Soybean Index will likely close.

Wheat:

March K.C. wheat closed down 5 1/4 cents at $5.04 1/4 and December Chicago wheat was down 4 3/4 cents at $5.03 -- neither showing any concern about the likely loss of U.S. winter wheat acres in late 2018. USDA said late Tuesday 89% of winter wheat was planted, down from the five-year average of 94%. USDA also said 77% of winter wheat was emerged and 54% was rated good-to-excellent, but no one has any idea of how many acres USDA is referring to. After heavy rains this fall, it may not be a surprise that winter wheat planting is behind schedule, but this week's colder temperatures and snow in Kansas and Arkansas may mark the end of the planting season for many. Wheat in Argentina encountered heavy rains earlier this week and possible flooding, but the forecast is drier for the week ahead, giving crops a chance to recover. March K.C. wheat posted a new low for 2018, but all three wheats' cash prices are holding sideways. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.57 Tuesday, 30 cents below the December contract and holding above support at $4.50. Similarly, DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.76 Tuesday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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Todd Hultman