DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Mike Palmerino
By  Mike Palmerino , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and northeast Canada extending into western Greenland. This is producing cool temperatures in western Canada, cold/very cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge off the west coast of the US extending into the western U.S. and southwest Canada. A trough extending from northern Mexico into the interior northeast U.S. A trough in the northwest atlantic. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over the southwest atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 7days. Fair agreement days 8-10. During the 6-10 days period. The northern branch of the jet will feature a series of troughs across Alaska and northern Canada And a blocking ridge over eastern Greenland. This will produce mild temperatures in western Canada. variable in central Canada, cool/cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the western U.S. and a trough in the south-central and northeast U.S. This will be a rather dry pattern for much of the central U.S. during the outlook period. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them. Rainfall could increase over the south-central U.S. under the trough at the end of the period.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation below normal. The northern Plains variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The southern Plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see near to below normal temperatures during the next 4 days, variable days 5-10. Precipitation below normal through 7 days, near to below normal days 8-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...90 AT WINTER HAVEN FL

LOW MON...18 BELOW ZERO AT WEST YELLOWSTONE MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…SHREVEPORT LA 4.50 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement during the early and middle part of the outlook period, fair agreement at the end of the period. I favor a compromise between the models as it concerns the end of the period. Today's US model features more rain in the southern plains area later in the outlook period than does the European model. The models both show some precipitation through the Delta late in the period. The European model also shows a little rainfall in the Midwest at the end of the period.

The mean maps at 8-10 days feature a strong, blocking ridge, over the northern Atlantic. The ridge shown the European model is somewhat stronger and a little further north and slightly further west of the one on the US model.

Above normal heights stretch from Greenland across the northern Atlantic to northern Europe. This high latitude blocking ridge is responsible for holding the polar vortex over eastern Canada and the northeast US through the end of the period. It likely means continued cold conditions in the northeast US areas which should extend westward into the east part of the Midwest. West to northwest flow around the trough keeps the north plains and Midwest regions drier than normal. A weak to somewhat moderate southern branch jet stream may spread some rainfall through the southern plains and Delta region but the extent and intensity of this rainfall is somewhat uncertain at this time.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Cold/dry weather will favor the remaining harvest in the western Midwest. Cold/unsettled weather will disrupt and delay the remaining harvest in the eastern Midwest.

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN,SOYBEANS): More favorable harvest weather in the northern Plains.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT): Colder weather slows winter wheat development.

Soil moisture supplies are quite favorable.

AUSTRALIA (WHEAT): Mostly favorable weather for maturing and harvesting wheat.

More rain would benefit summer crops in the northeast.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Favorable weather for developing soybeans in central Brazil. Drier weather in southern Brazil favors planting. Soil moisture supplies are favorable for development.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rains in central Argentina will disrupt and delay corn and soybean planting and may force some replanting. Soil moisture supplies for developing crops are adequate to surplus.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Mostly favorable soil moisture for planting and developing maize over eastern areas. However, soil moisture will diminish during the next 5 days as temperatures turn quite hot. The western growing areas remain hotter and drier than the eastern growing areas at this time. This pattern is concerning for these areas. Western areas typically plant later than the east but eventually they will need significant rains to recharge soil moisture following a very dry, very hot start to the rainy season.

EUROPE: Winter crop prospects have greatly improved over much of northern Europe following beneficial rain over the past two weeks.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: Dry, warm weather encouraged a rapid pace of summer crop harvesting and accelerated winter wheat development

CHINA (WHEAT/RAPESEED): Dry weather across most of eastern China facilitated the completion of wheat and rapeseed planting. More rainfall would be welcome to boost moisture reserves prior to the crops going dormant.

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INDIA (WHEAT/RAPESEED): Seasonably dry weather across most of India continued to promote winter (rabi) crop planting, although wheat sowing was delayed in the north due to the slow pace of cotton and rice harvesting. Showers were generally limited to the south and southeast (Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala), boosting moisture supplies for rabi rice and groundnut establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: A little light precipitation through northern Missouri during the past 24 hours. Dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged well below normal yesterday.

East: Scattered light or very light precipitation, snow and rain showers, through south, central and northeast areas during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged below to well below normal yesterday.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today through Thursday. Temperatures average well below normal today, near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Chance for a little light precipitation favoring northern areas during Friday or Friday night. Drier Saturday. Dry Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday.

East: Mostly dry today and early Wednesday. Light to locally moderate precipitation may develop through southeast areas Wednesday night. Light precipitation lingers in south and east-central areas early Thursday.

Temperatures average below to well below normal during this period.

Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation, favoring southeast areas, during Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal Friday, below normal during the weekend.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures below normal early in this period, near to above normal west and below normal east late in the period. Precipitation below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Scattered light precipitation from southeast Kansas through east and south Oklahoma and northeast Texas during the past 24 hours. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Thursday. Temperatures average well below normal today and early Wednesday, warmer northwest areas and continued below or well below normal elsewhere in the region later Wednesday, near to above normal north and west and below normal southeast during Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday. Dry or with only a little very light precipitation during the weekend. Temperatures average near to above normal Friday, somewhat colder again Saturday and Sunday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation near to below normal.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures above normal. Highs yesterday were 89 to 95F.

Forecast...

Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms develop through RGDS during today or tonight. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms move into Parana during Wednesday. Scattered showers may linger in northern Parana Thursday. Temperatures should be hot again today, cooler in southern areas Wednesday, somewhat cooler in the north Thursday.

A few light showers with locally heavier in Parana during Friday. Scattered showers redevelop in the south and spread north Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures near to above normal. Highs yesterday 86 to 100F.

Forecast...

Scattered afternoon or evening thundershowers favoring east and north areas today. Scattered afternoon or evening thundershowers tomorrow and Thursday.

Temperatures above normal today and Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Daily chances for scattered thundershowers Friday through Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Thunderstorms, 0.75-1.50 inches and locally heavier, through northern Buenos Aires and Santa Fe during the past 24 hours. Heavier rains through Entre Rios during this time. Light to moderate showers with locally heavier in Cordoba.

Temperatures averaged below normal west and south, near to above normal northeast.

Forecast...

A little light rain or drizzle may linger today. Breezy and turning cooler today. Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures average near to below normal during this period.

Mostly dry Friday. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers favoring southern areas during Saturday. Drier again Sunday. Temperatures may be somewhat warmer Friday but it should turn cooler again during the weekend.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Scattered showers, 0.10-0.75 inch and locally heavier, during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast...

Light showers with locally heavy showers today. Mostly dry tomorrow and Thursday. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms redevelop in the west and spread east during Friday and Saturday. Drier again Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal during this period.

Joel Burgio

(BAS)

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Mike Palmerino