DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 3 1/2 cents in the December contract and down 2 3/4 cents in the July. Soybeans were down 22 1/4 cents in the November contract and down 21 cents in the July. Wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents in the December Kansas City contract, down 4 1/2 cents in December Chicago and down 3 1/4 cents in the December Minneapolis contract.

The December U.S. dollar index is up 0.35 at 95.64. December gold is up $3.00 at $1,230.40 while December silver is down 6 cents and December copper is down $0.0470. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 447 points at 25,260. December crude oil is down $1.12 at $68.58. December heating oil is down $0.0124 while December RBOB gasoline is down $0.0220 and December natural gas is down 0.105.

Corn:

December corn closed down 3 1/2 cents at $3.70 3/4 Thursday, pressured by a disappointing report of export sales for last week. USDA said last week's corn sales totaled 15.1 million bushels, the lowest so far in 2018-19. On a more bullish note, 43.3 million bushels of corn shipments brought the 2018-19 total to 80% above a year ago. The overall pace of total corn export commitments remains high, up 41% from a year ago. At the same time, Thursday's weather map was mostly dry again, outside of Texas, allowing for an increase in harvest progress that became more difficult a week ago. With most corn crops still in the field, the trend remains up in December corn, in line with its seasonal tendency. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.32 Wednesday, up from its September low and priced 42 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index was up 0.35 while most other commodities were lower. The Dow Jones Industrials were trading down 447 points with concerns of a slowing world economy cited as the culprit by several media sources.

Soybeans:

November soybeans fell 22 1/4 cents to $8.63 1/2 after USDA released another week of disappointing export numbers. USDA said soybean export sales and shipments totaled 10.8 and 42.5 million bushels respectively, putting total commitments down 21% from a year ago, early in the new 2018-19 season. As a side note, a slim 5 million bushels of soybeans were exported to China, but there was no specific reference of sales to China otherwise. This remains an important time for U.S. soybean exports; offering cheap prices while China remains firm about staying away from the U.S. market. At the same time, soybean planting is said to be going well in Brazil with more beneficial rain in the seven-day forecast. In spite of Thursday's lower close, the trend remains up in November soybeans, in line with its seasonal tendency. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.85 Wednesday, up from its lowest price in 11 years and priced $1.01 below the November contract, the weakest basis in at least 11 years.

Wheat:

December K.C. wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents at $5.14 3/4 Thursday, also finding bearish pressure from USDA's weekly export sales report. USDA said last week's wheat export sales and shipments totaled 17.5 and 18.0 million bushels respectively, finding more sales than a week ago, but with total shipments down 25% from a year ago, exports are still not anywhere near USDA's hope for a 14% increase in 2018-19. Thursday's weather map showed more rain in Texas while winter wheat areas north of Oklahoma are expected to be mostly dry for at least the next seven days. While the southwestern Plains recover from recent heavy rains, the longer-term benefit is that much of the drought from earlier in 2018 has been erased. In Canada, harvest efforts will get help from another eight days of favorable weather. For now, December contracts for all three wheats are holding in a narrow, sideways range, supported above their July lows. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.84 Wednesday, up from its lowest price in two months and 37 cents below the December contract. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.79, also up from its lowest price in two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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