DTN Early Word Opening Livestock

Brace for Lower Price Action in Opening Hog Futures

(DTN file photo)

Cattle: Steady-$1 LR Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $134.59 - .37*

Hogs: Steady-$1 LR Futures: 50-100 LR Lean Equiv: $ 83.55 -2.35**

* based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue

** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle-buying activity could increase Thursday with opening bids around $172 to $174 in the South and $111 in the North. Asking prices should be restated around $175 in the South and $114 plus in the North. Yet significant trade volume could easily be delayed until Friday.

Look for the cash hog trade to open with bids generally $1 lower Thursday as pork processors try hard to further lower the cost of live inventory. Fourth quarter meat supplies are proving to be a major burden for red meat packers. Lean futures should open moderately lower in the face of further cash losses.

BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1)

Last week's FOB load count was the largest in three weeks. With a boost in sales on Thursday, spot market volumes are running ahead of the last couple of weeks. Spot load counts are about steady on the chucks, while higher on the ribs, loins and rounds. Loins are showing the biggest gains, especially the select product.

1)

Beef cutouts faltered moderately lower at midweek with box supplies described as "moderate to heavy."

2)

The choice beef strips have gone from historic highs in the $570 area in mid-September to now being under $500 and a little below year-ago levels. They still may move modestly lower, finding fall lows in the $470s or $480s sometime in October or November. Modest strength would be expected heading into the new year, before making stronger, seasonal gains from late winter into the spring.

2)

Despite the weakness last Friday, there were a further 27 delivery notices served at the end of the week. There may be some producers questioning the potential for a firmer cash cattle market this fall after seeing it remain steady over the last five weeks, while steer and heifer slaughter has been declining on a seasonal basis.

3)

China reported a new African swine fever outbreak in Datong city in Shanxi province, the agriculture ministry said on Wednesday. The new case was found on a farm with 15 pigs in Datong, which infected seven and killed four, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in a statement published on its website. It was the first case confirmed in the Northern Province, the 10th region in China that has reported the disease.

3)

The pork carcass value got hit hard on Wednesday with all primals spilling hard except the ribs.

4)

U.S. hatcheries set 216 million eggs in incubators during the week ended Oct. 13, down slightly from a year ago. At the same time, broiler growers in the United States weekly program placed 177 million chicks for meat production, down 1% from a year ago.

4)

For the week ended Oct. 13, Iowa barrows and gilts averaged 282.9 pounds, 1.7 pounds heavier than the prior week and .8 pounds bigger than 2017.

OTHER MARKET SENSITIVE NEWS

CATTLE:(Penton Business Media) -- While there's nothing quite like the convenience of having a freezer full of ranch-raised beef, our family always enjoys receiving Omaha Steaks in the mail. We've been gifted Omaha Steak products several times over the years, and it's a fun mail day to open the frozen package knowing a great eating experience awaits

P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

The 100-year old company has a solid business model that works. However, the business is seeking to disrupt the traditional meat market with a new feature that helps customers select the meat to best fit their needs.

Much like a butcher at the meat counter offers advice to shoppers, Omaha Steaks now has a similar feature that connects customers with the best cuts and appropriate preparation methods for the desired recipe they would like to prepare at home.

Launched on Oct. 10, Omaha Steak's new "Butcher Service" features a team of butchers who are available to make recommendations through personal phone consultations with clients.

Omaha Steaks describes the new service, "Drawing on five generations of experience, we are 'America's Original Butcher,' and we are at your service. Omaha Steaks team of 100+ master butchers are standing by to custom-cut your steaks, roasts, and more by hand, to meet your specific needs, just as we have for 100+ years. Contact our specially trained Steak Experts, and we'll help you determine your perfect order and get it done right."

Through a consultation with an Omaha Steaks butcher, the Butcher Service can cut steaks to custom thickness, fulfill large custom orders for events, trim and debone any cut, carve extra-thick roasts, tie whole roasts and more. Plus, the butchers are with their customers every step of the way with recommendations for seasoning, marinating, preparation, grilling or roasting times and any other tips that may help the consumer have a great beef eating experience. You're probably thinking-- so what? This is exactly the service that's provided at the local meat locker or grocery store in town. However, the reality is consumers are shopping more frequently online from the comforts of their homes. And now, with the click of the button, they can have steaks or roasts-- fit for corporate events, family dinners or Christmas gifts-- delivered right to their doorsteps. It seems like a natural next step for Omaha Steaks to take. After all, the better educated their customers are, the better their experience will be with their products.

So how does this change the game for the traditional beef retail model in the future? Surely we'll see much of the same with the local meat cutter helping the community members who shop at his retail location. Yet, I think we'll see a lot more online interaction with consumers turning to the web to learn how to select and prepare their beef purchases.

Anybody can fry a chicken, add some sauce and make it taste good. It's not rocket science. However, for beef there is some finesse and knowledge required in order to enjoy each cut to the fullest. More outreach and education is needed in this area to give consumers added confidence when purchasing beef. I think Omaha Steaks hits the mark with this new "Butcher Service."

Blogging on this topic reminds me we have a pair of Omaha Steaks filets my husband won in a golf tournament this summer that are just waiting to be grilled and enjoyed. Perhaps I'll call Omaha Steaks to visit with a butcher for their recommendations on how to best prepare this product.

HOGS: (NPPC) -- October News on the trade front is getting better for U.S. pork producers as the Trump administration announced it wants to negotiate trade agreements with the European Union, Japan and the United Kingdom. The National Pork Producers Council commended the administration for its ambitious trade agenda.

The administration recently updated agreements with Canada and Mexico and with South Korea that maintained the U.S. pork industry's zero-tariff access to those important markets, three of the top five destinations for U.S. pork exports. "We've got the momentum on trade headed in the right direction now," said NPPC President Jim Heimerl, a pork producer from Johnstown, Ohio. "Producers are hurting because of retaliatory tariffs on pork, which were prompted by the administration's efforts to realign U.S. trade policy. But producers have been patient, and now that patience is starting to pay off, particularly if we get a trade deal with Japan."

Since Trump took office in January 2017, NPPC has been urging the White House to begin trade talks with countries in the fast-growing Asia-Pacific region, beginning with Japan, the U.S. pork industry's No. 1 export market. It also has called for deals with the Philippines and Vietnam.

NPPC also has been supportive of trade negotiations with the United Kingdom, provided that the U.K. is willing to eliminate all non-tariff barriers and embrace U.N. food-safety standards and other international standards.

"NPPC will not support a deal with the U.K. unless it agrees to equivalence, meaning that all USDA-approved pork and pork products must be eligible for export to the U.K. without additional requirements," Heimerl said.

And while the organization is open to trade negotiations with the U.K., it is skeptical about EU intentions.

"The EU has played the United States like a drum in the past," said Heimerl. "This must stop. We expect the Trump administration to require the EU to eliminate all tariff and non-tariff barriers to U.S. pork so we can export with no additional requirements."

While the trade news is good for U.S. pork producers, NPPC is continuing to press the Trump administration to resolve trade disputes with China and Mexico, including dropping tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from the latter. Both countries imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. pork in response to the U.S. metals duties.

John Harrington can be reached at harringtonsfotm@gmail.com

Follow him on Twitter @feelofthemarket

(BAS)

P[L2] D[728x90] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[R1] D[300x250] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[R2] D[300x250] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
DIM[1x3] LBL[] SEL[] IDX[] TMPL[standalone] T[]
P[R3] D[300x250] M[0x0] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]