DTN Closing Livestock Comments

Prices Surge on Late-Day Support

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN file photo)

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle markets are undeveloped Monday afternoon with asking prices and bids unavailable at this point. This is what is typically expected for a Monday, as traders focus on active trade being delayed until the second half of the week. Showlists for the week appear to be mixed with larger offerings seen in Nebraska offsetting lower numbers in Kansas. Texas and Colorado are generally steady with last week. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $1.07 lower compared with the Prior Day settlement ($55.00-$61.40, weighted average $60.33). Corn futures were higher in light activity with the December contract closing 4 1/2 cents higher. The Dow Jones Index was 2 points lower with Nasdaq down 43 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Market uncertainty limited trade activity Monday morning, but this was replaced by active buyer support later in the day, pushing live cattle futures $0.65 to $1.80 higher. The December contract led the surge higher with a $1.80-per-cwt rally. The renewed support is still a long way from offsetting previous pressure, but continued support over the next couple of days could dispel concerns of additional weakness through the end of the month. Beef cut-outs: mixed, down $0.39 (select, $191.89) to up $2.09 (choice, $204.80) with light-to-moderate demand and offerings 94 loads (62 loads of choice cuts, 22 loads of select cuts, no load of trimmings, 9 loads of coarse grinds).

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TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL:

Steady. Activity Tuesday is expected to remain at a standstill with asking prices and bids unlikely until late Tuesday or well into midweek.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Following strong early pressure, feeder cattle futures rebounded late Monday, closing $0.40 to $1.05 higher. The sharp losses seen early Monday morning were due to traders focusing on renewed aggressive buying support in grains. But once firm commercial buyer support started to redevelop in the live cattle trade, traders quickly changed direction in all feeder cattle contracts. CME cash feeder index for 10/12 is $156.26, down $1.24.

LEAN HOGS:

Sharp gains quickly flooded through the lean hog trade with triple-digit gains seen in most contracts. Futures closed $0.80 to $1.75 higher. Active commercial interest quickly moved into the lean hog market Monday following the strong market weakness seen over the last week. The front-month December contract continued to lead the market higher as traders quickly and aggressively moved back into the market. The potential for follow-through trader support is improving. Pork cuts surged higher following gains in all primal cuts, except ribs. Strong triple-digit gains were seen in butt, picnic, ham and belly cuts. Pork cutout values gained $1.46 per cwt, moving to $81.50 per cwt. CME cash lean index for 10/11: $68.99, down $0.29. DTN Projected lean index for 10/12: $68.75, down $0.24.

TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL:

50 cents lower. Cash markets are expected to be steady to $1 per cwt lower early Tuesday morning with most bids expected 50 cents lower in limited activity. This could change later in the week if firm underlying support continues to be seen in futures trade. Slaughter numbers are expected to be seen at 477,000 head Tuesday morning.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

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Rick Kment