DTN Closing Grain Comments

Grains Rescue Sluggish Week With Higher Closes

Todd Hultman
By  Todd Hultman , DTN Lead Analyst
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(DTN illustration by Nick Scalise)

General Comments:

Corn closed up 4 1/2 cents in the December contract and was up 3 3/4 cents in the July. Soybeans closed up 9 1/4 cents in the November and up 9 cents in the July. Wheat closed up 10 1/2 cents in the December Kansas City, up 9 1/4 cents in the December Chicago, and was up 6 1/2 cents in the December Minneapolis.

The December U.S. dollar index is up 0.22 at 94.93. December gold is down $5.70 at $1,221.90 while December silver is up 1 cent and December copper is up 0.0085. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 80 points at 25,133. November crude oil is up $0.43 at $71.40. November heating oil is down $0.0085 while November RBOB gasoline is up $0.0093 and November natural gas is down $0.062.

For the week:

December corn closed up 5 1/2 cents and July was up 5 1/2 cents. November soybeans were down 1 1/2 cents while the July was up 1/4 cent. December Kansas City wheat was unchanged, December Chicago wheat was down 3 3/4 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was up 4 3/4 cents.

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Corn:

December corn closed up 4 1/2 cents at $3.73 3/4 Friday and was up 5 1/2 cents on the week, benefitting from USDA's slightly lower-than-expected corn crop estimate and another week of bullish corn shipment data. Early Friday, USDA said last week's sales were lower, at 39.6 million bushels (mb), but shipments were higher at 63.2 mb. Total corn shipments are now up 67% in 2018-19 from a year ago, maintaining a bullish early pace. Friday's weather map showed rain in the south-central Plains with more expected this weekend. The northern Midwest however, has a drier forecast for the next two weeks, offering much-needed help for harvest. December corn's higher close on Friday turned the trend higher, in line with its typical seasonal pattern. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.26 Thursday, up from this year's low and 43 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 80 points, nearing the end of a volatile week. Most other commodities were higher.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 9 1/4 cents at $8.67 1/2 Friday but ended down 1 1/2 cents on the week. Thursday's WASDE report offered some relief that U.S. soybean ending stocks did not come in as high as many feared while this week's rain in the central Midwest and snow in the Dakotas added to crop quality concerns for soybeans still stranded in the fields. On the other hand, the soybean export scenario still does not look as bullish as USDA projects. Early Friday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 16.2 and 32.5 mb respectively, putting total shipments down 25% in 2018-19 from a year ago. In spite of no progress in the trade dispute with China and a slow start of weekly export numbers in the new season, November soybeans continue to maintain a sideways trend with prices holding above their September low. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.56 Thursday, up from its lowest price in eleven years and priced $1.02 below the November contract -- the weakest basis in at least eleven years. Among October contracts on their final day of trading, October soybean meal ended down 40 cents at $312.40 and October soybean oil finished up 0.31 cent at 29.04 cents.

Wheat:

December K.C. wheat closed up 10 1/2 cents at $5.24 1/4 Friday and was steady on the week, basically chopping up and down, but not going anywhere. Wheat prices, however, did find more reason for support this week as heavy rains brought flooding to parts of the southwestern U.S. Plains with more expected the next seven days. Outside of the U.S., Canada is still working on spring wheat harvest and winter wheat planting conditions remain dry for Ukraine and Russia. Thursday's WASDE report showed world wheat production down 3.7% in 2018-19 from the previous year, thanks to small October reductions for Australia and Russia. Even so, the lower production has yet to translate into higher U.S. export business. Early Friday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments totaled 12.5 and 18.4 mb respectively, putting total shipments down 28% in 2018-19 from a year ago. For now, the trends in all three wheats remain sideways, holding above their July lows. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.76 Thursday, up from its lowest close in two months and down 38 cents from the December contract. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.76 Thursday, also up from its lowest close in two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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Todd Hultman