DTN Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Michael aiming for the Southeast U.S.; rains and floods delaying the harvest in parts of the Corn Belt; some additional rain coming for the winter wheat crop; and more showers for Brazil, are key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

HURRICANE MICHAEL TO HIT FLORIDA, GEORGIA TODAY

Major Hurricane Michael is expected to move across the Florida Panhandle and into southwest Georgia during Wednesday. Heavy to very heavy rains leading to severe flooding and strong, damaging winds will affect cotton and peanut areas, affecting unharvested crops. Winds will diminish, but the heavy rain will also carry through the Carolinas and into Virginia. These are also cotton and peanut areas there. Michael is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane at this time, capable of causing catastrophic wind damage, a powerful storm surge and severe flooding when it moves inland. In addition to the crop impact, lives and property are also at risk.

IMPROVING WEATHER PATTERN FOR MIDWEST

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for recent heavy rains to delay and disrupt the harvest and be highly unfavorable for maturing crops in the Midwest, especially in the western and northern Midwest areas. Quality may suffer. An improving weather pattern appears to be setting up as the mean trough shifts eastward.

ADEQUATE TO SURPLUS MOISTURE FOR S. PLAINS

Heavy rain and thunderstorms during the weekend and early this week in the central and Southern Plains will provide adequate and surplus soil moisture for winter wheat development. Local flooding is likely. Planting delays also likely. Rain delays and disrupts the harvest of summer crops. Additional rain will move through southern areas during the weekend; the moisture will be associated with post-tropical storm Sergio.

RAINS FOR WEST TEXAS

Rains associated with post-tropical storm Sergio are expected to move through west Texas Friday into Saturday. Heavy rain may occur, depending on the exact track of the surface low.

COLD, UNSETTLED WEATHER IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Across the Northern Plains, cold, unsettled weather with rain and snow is unfavorable for maturing crops and harvest. The weather pattern may improve, somewhat, after today.

WET WEATHER DELAYS IN DELTA

Wet weather today and again later in the weekend in the Delta region will lead to some delay in harvest but nothing that appears to be too serious at this time.

VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies will see a drier weather pattern with slowly moderating temperatures that will help improve conditions for the delayed harvest in western areas. Eastern areas may see additional light precipitation and continued cold weather.

SHOWERS, RAIN IN BRAZIL

Central Brazil has episodes of scattered thundershowers and warm weather that will favor planting and early development of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias. Heavy rains in Parana may slow planting progress somewhat. Planting of corn and soybeans in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul may slow due to recent and forecasted wet weather. Soil moisture will favor early planted crops.

AUSTRALIA SHOWERS

Showers have recently improved conditions for reproductive to filling wheat in Western Australia. Rain has moved into New South Wales this past week. This favors reproductive to filling wheat in the south part of the state, but it is likely too late to help the drought-reduced crop in the north or wheat in south Queensland. Showers in northern New South Wales and south Queensland may help improve conditions for planting sorghum and cotton.

TROPICAL STORMS UPDATE

At 4 a.m. CDT, Hurricane Michael was located 140 miles south-southwest of Panama City, Florida. Michael is moving northward near 13 miles per hour. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected this morning, with a turn toward the northeast this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to move ashore over the Florida Panhandle, near Panama City, a little after noon today, move northeastward across the southeastern U.S. tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane. After landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern U.S.

At 2 a.m., PDT, Tropical Storm Sergio, with 70-mph winds, was located 1,020 miles west-southwest of Baja in the eastern Pacific. Sergio is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with a further increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(ES/CZ)

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