DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 1 3/4 cents in the December contract and down 1 1/4 cents in the July. Soybeans were down 10 3/4 cents in the November contract and down 10 1/2 cents in the July. Wheat closed down 3 1/4 cents in the December Kansas City contract, down 4 1/2 cents in December Chicago, and down 1 3/4 cents in the December Minneapolis contract. The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.25 at 95.09. December gold is up $3.50 at $1,195.00 while December silver is down 6 cents and December copper is down $0.0375. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 530 points at 25,951. November crude oil is down $1.72 at $73.24. November heating oil is down $0.0300 while November RBOB gasoline is down $0.0594 and November natural gas is up 0.017.

Corn:

December corn ended down 1 3/4 cents at $3.62 3/4 Wednesday, a mild response of light volume trading on a day when nearly all commodities and the stock market were trading lower, pressured by concerns of rising interest rates. Wednesday's weather map showed snow in the Dakotas and more rain over the eastern Midwest, including an already soggy Wisconsin. Looking ahead, however, the forecast turns drier the next two weeks once Wednesday's precipitation moves on. USDA's next WASDE report will be released at 11 a.m. CDT Thursday and Dow Jones' pre-report survey expects USDA's estimate of U.S. ending corn stocks to increase from 1.774 billion to 1.932 billion bushels (bb), largely the result of finding more corn than expected in the September 28 Grain Stocks report. Exports are the bullish hope for corn prices in early 2019 and, even though analysts don't expect USDA to change its export estimate, an increase is possible. For now, December corn prices are trading sideways, holding well above their September low of $3.42 1/2. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.22 Tuesday, up from its September low and priced 43 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, nearly all commodities are lower and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading down 530 points, related to concerns about rising interest rates.

Soybeans:

November soybeans fell 10 3/4 cents to $8.52 1/4 Wednesday, showing bearish concerns ahead of Thursday's WASDE report. According to Dow Jones, analysts are expecting a slightly higher crop estimate of 4.73 bb and a higher estimate of U.S. ending stocks, at 860 million bushels (mb). As with corn, analysts are not leaving room for a change in the export estimate, but with U.S. soybean sales off to a slow start, the ending stocks could be adjusted even higher. Of course, the trade dispute with the world's largest buyer of soybeans remains a bearish weight on soybean prices and, so far, shows no signs of letting up. Beyond Thursday's WASDE report, the latest waves of excess rain have raised concerns about soybean quality in the fields that will have to be assessed. For now, the trend in November soybeans remains sideways with the September low of $8.12 1/4 holding as potential support. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.61 Tuesday, up from its lowest price in 11 years and priced $1.02 below the November contract, the weakest basis in at least 11 years. Among October contracts, delivery intentions totaled 42 for soybean meal and 153 for soybean oil early Wednesday.

Wheat:

December K.C. wheat ended down 3 1/4 cents at $5.16 1/4, a modest loss on a day that saw widespread selling across the commodity board. Wednesday's weather map was drier for the southwestern U.S. Plains after a week of heavy rains. More rain is expected this weekend, adding to flooding concerns in Kansas and Oklahoma while temperatures stay mostly warm with some Kansas mornings closer to freezing. Outside the U.S., spring wheat harvest in Canada remains a challenge with early wintry conditions. Dryness is a concern for winter wheat planting in western and northern Ukraine and west-central Russia. Thursday's WASDE report is likely to see a higher estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks for 2018-19 after higher than expected wheat supplies were found in USDA's September 28 report of wheat stocks. The export estimate is also at risk of being reduced with early shipments down 31% from a year ago. As wheat prices move toward a quieter time of year, December contracts for all three wheats are holding in a sideways range, supported above their July lows. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.76 Tuesday, 39 cents below the December contract and up from its lowest price in two months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.81, also up from its lowest price in two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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