DTN Market Impact Weather

Rains, Floods Delay Harvest, Winter Wheat Planting

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , DTN/Progressive Farmer Associate Content Manager
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Rains and flooding delaying harvest in areas of the Corn Belt; Hurricane Michael aiming for the Southeast U.S.; additional rains for the winter wheat crop in the central and Southern Plains; and more showers for Brazil, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

MODERATE TO HEAVY MIDWEST RAINS

The DTN Ag Weather forecast says recent and forecasted moderate to heavy rains will delay and disrupt harvest and will be highly unfavorable for maturing crops in the Midwest. Quality may suffer, especially in areas of the central and west where it is very wet at this time.

ADEQUATE TO SURPLUS MOISTURE FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heavy rain and thunderstorms during the weekend and early this week in the central and Southern Plains will provide adequate and surplus soil moisture for winter wheat development. Local flooding is likely. Planting delays also likely. Rain delays and disrupts the harvest of summer crops.

COLD, UNSETTLED WEATHER IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Across the Northern Plains, cold, unsettled weather with rain and snow is unfavorable for maturing crops and harvest. This unsettled weather pattern should continue during the next two to three days, especially in south and east areas, before weather improves.

HURRICANE MICHAEL TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST U.S.

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Hurricane Michael is expected to move across the Florida Panhandle and into southwest Georgia during Wednesday. Heavy to very heavy rains leading to severe flooding and strong, damaging winds will affect cotton and peanut areas, and other unharvested crops. Winds will diminish, but the heavy rain will also carry through the Carolinas and into Virginia. These are also cotton and peanut areas.

MIDWEEK DELTA RAIN

The Delta will have mostly favorable conditions for seasonal fieldwork at this time. Rain will move through midweek and cause some delays. Additional rain may move into the area during the six- to 10-day period.

DRIER IN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies will see a drier weather pattern with slowly moderating temperatures that will help improve conditions for the delayed harvest. However, improvement might be slow in some locations.

SHOWERS, RAIN IN BRAZIL

Central Brazil has episodes of scattered thundershowers and warm weather that will favor planting and early development of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias. Heavy rains in Parana may slow planting progress somewhat. Planting of corn and soybeans in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul may slow due to recent and forecasted wet weather. Soil moisture will favor early planted crops.

AUSTRALIA SHOWERS

Showers have recently improved conditions for reproductive to filling wheat in Western Australia. Rain has moved into New South Wales this past week. This favors reproductive to filling wheat in the south part of the state, but it is likely too late to help the drought-reduced crop in the north or wheat in south Queensland. Showers in northern New South Wales and south Queensland may help improve conditions for planting sorghum and cotton.

TROPICAL STORMS UPDATE

At 4:00 a.m. CDT, Hurricane Michael, with 70-mph winds, was 390 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida. Michael, which intensified this morning to become a Category 2 hurricane, is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 miles per hour. A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.

On the forecast track, the center of Hurricane Michael will continue to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico later Tuesday and tonight. The center of the hurricane is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday. Landfall is currently projected near or just east of Panama City, Florida at about 1 p.m. Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds at the time of landfall are expected to be about 120 mph (Category 3).

At 2:00 a.m. PDT, Hurricane Sergio, with 85-mph winds, was located 1,255 miles west-southwest of Baja. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph, and this general motion should continue during the next several days with an increase in forward speed. The forecast suggests a track across Baja and northwest Mexico Thursday night and Friday, likely as a tropical storm. The post tropical storm may move over southeast New Mexico and west Texas Friday night or Saturday.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(ES/CZ)

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Elaine Shein

Elaine Shein
Connect with Elaine: