DTN Closing Grain Comments

Half Rain, Half Dry

Todd Hultman
By  Todd Hultman , DTN Lead Analyst
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(DTN illustration by Nick Scalise)

General Comments:

Corn was down 1 3/4 cents in the December contract and down 1 1/2 cents in the July. Soybeans were up 3/4 cent in the November contract and down 1/4 cent in the July. Wheat closed down 7 cents in the December Chicago contract, down 6 3/4 cents in the December Kansas City and down 2 1/4 cents in the December Minneapolis contract.

The December U.S. dollar index is up 0.10 at 95.41. December gold is down $15.40 at $1,190.20, while December silver is down 27 cents and December copper is up $0.0085. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 21 points at 26,468. November crude oil is down $0.17 at $74.17. November heating oil is down $0.0034, while November RBOB gasoline is up $0.0022 and November natural gas is up 0.130.

Corn:

December corn ended down 1 3/4 cents on light volume Monday, showing no concern about heavy rains in the Corn Belt that picked up again over the weekend and are expected to slowly push eastward the next two days. After Wednesday, drier conditions are forecast to return for the remainder of the 14-day period, allowing for better harvest conditions. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service has a flash flooding watch issued from central Texas to northern Wisconsin. Monday's usual weekly inspections and crop progress reports were pushed to Tuesday because U.S. government offices are closed for Columbus Day, so there wasn't not much news for Monday's trade. For now, December corn prices are trading sideways, holding well above their September low of $3.42 1/2. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.25 Friday, up from its September low and priced 43 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is up 0.10 and December gold is trading down $15.40, pressured by the anticipation of higher interest rates ahead.

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Soybeans:

November soybeans ended up 3/4 cents on light volume Monday, hardly reacting to the current harvest-delaying rains or the flooding risks that go along with them. Trade tensions with China remain a major concern for soybean prices. According to Dow Jones, the People's Bank of China said Sunday it would relax reserve requirements for commercial banks, presumably to help the economy deal with the adverse pressure of U.S. tariffs. Officially, China remains strict about avoiding U.S. soybeans. This is the time of year when China is most vulnerable for needing U.S. soybean supplies and all eyes have been on U.S. export reports to see how the dispute plays out. With no trade progress in sight, demand remains a bearish concern for U.S. soybean prices. Aside from the political risk, the trend has turned sideways and the September low of $8.12 1/4 is holding as support. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.66 Friday, up from its lowest price in 11 years and priced $1.03 below the November contract, the weakest basis in at least eleven years. Among October contracts, delivery intentions totaled 41 for soybean meal and 212 for soybean oil early Monday.

Wheat:

December K.C. wheat closed down 6 3/4 cents at $5.17 1/2 Monday as this week's rains over the southwestern U.S. Plains should prove largely helpful to the new winter wheat crop. Keep in mind, the National Weather Service is warning of high flooding risk in western Oklahoma and central Kansas. Tuesday afternoon's Crop Progress report from USDA will likely show planting progress past the half-way mark with southern temperatures still safely warm in October. Outside of the U.S., drier weather is expected to help Canada's wheat harvest, but remains a concern for planting conditions in France, Germany, Poland, northern Ukraine and west-central Russia. For now, December contracts for all three wheats are holding in a sideways range, supported above their July lows. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.82 Friday, 39 cents below the December contract and up from its lowest price in two months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.85, also up from its lowest price in two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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Todd Hultman