DTN Closing Grain Comments

Grains Quietly Mixed; Spring Wheat Higher

Todd Hultman
By  Todd Hultman , DTN Lead Analyst
Connect with Todd:
(DTN illustration by Nick Scalise)

General Comments:

Corn was up 2 cents in the September contract and up 2 1/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 2 cents in the August contract and down 2 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 2 1/4 cents in the September Chicago contract, up 2 1/4 cents in the September Kansas City, and up 7 cents in the September Minneapolis contract. The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.25 at 94.48. August gold is down $6.50 at $1,224.60 while September silver is down 14 cents and September copper is down $0.0140. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 7 points at 25,065. September crude oil is down $0.40 at $67.86. September heating oil is up $0.0113 while September RBOB gasoline is up $0.0177 and September natural gas is down 0.028.

Corn:

December corn closed up 2 1/4 cents at $3.71 1/4 on light volume Monday, not showing much reaction to a mostly dry weekend with more hot temperatures in theSouthern Plains. It seems likely that USDA's good-to-excellent rating will be a little lower again this week, but will probably still describe a good national crop overall as temperatures have been moderate throughout most of the Corn Belt. There is not much rain in this week's forecast, but showers in Colorado on Wednesday are expected to move eastward to Missouri by next weekend, helping those drier crop areas. Michigan is the other dry area that won't get much help this week. On the demand side, USDA said 51.7 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, a decent amount, but probably not enough to reach USDA's export estimate of 2.4 billion bushels in 2017-18. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials reduced net longs from 109,320 to 90,805 as of July 17, but are still bullish in corn. With one week remaining in July, the trend remains down for December corn. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.26 Friday, up from its lows in 2018 and 30 cents below the September contract. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.25 and outside commodities are mixed, leaning lower.

P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Soybeans:

November soybeans ended down 2 cents at $8.62 3/4 Monday, a day of light trading as traders are in no hurry to take prices in either direction. Soybeans are too cheap for anyone to get excited about selling and supplies are looking too plentiful to motivate potential buyers. And, of course, part of the reason U.S. soybeans are plentiful is due to a 25% tariff and trade troubles with China. On that note, USDA said China cancelled a previous sale of 6.1 million bushels (165,000 mt) of optional origin soybeans for 2018-19. USDA later said 26.5 million bushels of U.S. soybeans were inspected for export last week, keeping total inspections on track for USDA's estimate of 4% fewer exports in 2017-18. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials slightly net long in soybeans with 1,150 contracts as of July 17. Commercials stayed net long for the fourth consecutive week with 25,186 contracts, finding attractive value at these cheaper prices. Technically, the trend remains down for soybeans with prices in a stalemate and trade issues an ongoing concern. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.89 Friday, up from its lowest price in over nine years and priced 60 cents below the August contract.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat closed down 2 1/4 cents and September K.C. wheat was up 2 1/4 cents at $5.10 3/4 Monday, continuing to find support above its 2018 low while weather continues to play an active role in trimming the world's 2018 wheat crop. Wheat prices in France are firm Monday with dry weather taking a toll in north-central Europe. Western Canada continues to need rain across the Southern Prairies and the U.S. Pacific Northwest remains dry with reports of wheat fields in Oregon either on fire or at risk of fire. Spring wheat crops in Montana and the Dakotas are still in good shape, but have a mostly dry forecast this week. September Minneapolis wheat ended up 7 cents Monday. The trends in winter wheat are currently sideways with noncommercials staying persistently net long in Chicago wheat. The trend in Minneapolis wheat remains down, but commercials are net long 13,691 contracts as of July 17, a sign of support for spring wheats' cheaper prices. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.89 Friday, near its highest prices in July and 26 cents below the September contract. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.93 Friday, its highest price in July.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(BE)

P[L2] D[728x90] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[R1] D[300x250] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[R2] D[300x250] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
DIM[1x3] LBL[] SEL[] IDX[] TMPL[standalone] T[]
P[R3] D[300x250] M[0x0] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Todd Hultman