DTN Market Impact Weather

Variable Midwest Rain

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , Ag Meteorologist Emeritus
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Wide variability in Midwest rain prospects, and a hot and dry trend in southern Russia wheat areas, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

EASTERN MIDWEST RAIN FOCUS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for eastern Midwest areas to have moderate to heavy rain, including some flooding, due to remnants from former subtropical storm Alberto. Western areas will be drier along with very warm to hot weather, possible stressing crops in early growth stages.

MIXED SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN

In the Southern Plains, northern portions of the region have received some beneficial showers and locally heavy rain. However, high heat and dryness continue to stress crops in the remainder of the region.

NORTHERN PLAINS SHOWERS

The Northern Plains region continues with generally favorable conditions for planting and developing spring wheat, corn and soybeans. Episodes of showers help to ease dryness concerns.

DELTA HEAT AHEAD

Most Delta crop areas are being bypassed by rain from post-tropical storm Alberto. Dryness is of some concern in the region. These concerns may increase if a hot upper-air high pressure ridge now located to the west does try to move east for a time during the next week to 10 days.

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HEAVY SOUTHEAST RAIN

In the southeastern U.S., heavy rains and wind will affect crop areas of Alabama and parts of Georgia as the post tropical storm Alberto is in the area Tuesday. Flooding is likely, severe flooding possible. This may affect developing spring grains and also cotton.

ADDITIONAL TEXAS COTTON HEAT

There is little, if any, chance for significant rain in the west Texas cotton region during the next ten days. There is some chance for scattered thundershowers in the Sunday-Monday timeframe. Temperatures likely averaging well-above normal due to the presence of hot upper-level high pressure. High temperatures through Saturday will be mainly in the 100-to-110 Fahrenheit range in the key growing areas. Next Sunday it may cool somewhat in northern areas.

DRYNESS WATCH IN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies had showers favoring eastern areas during the past weekend. Temperatures were above to well-above normal. Episodes of light to moderate showers east and light showers west remain in the forecast over the next week. These showers will improve conditions for germination and early development, while causing only minor delays to planting progress, mainly in eastern areas. More rain will still be needed to maintain this improving pattern as subsoil moisture is low in most areas.

MOSTLY DRY IN BRAZIL

Central Brazil will be mostly dry with a somewhat hotter trend in the area where most of the second-crop corn is grown during the next five days. Scattered thundershowers may reach Parana again next Monday into Tuesday.

HOT AND DRY IN RUSSIA

The key Southern Russia crop district had a dry and hot weekend period. Temperatures soared to 35 to 40 Celsius (95 to 104 Fahrenheit). Dry conditions were also in effect. This hot and dry pattern is stressful to winter wheat.

NORTHEAST CHINA RAIN

Northeastern China had moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms favoring central and southern areas during the weekend, improving conditions for planting and early development. Only light rain or showers occurred in key northern growing areas. Showers may linger Tuesday. The next chance for showers looks to be this coming weekend.

DRY WEEK FOR AUSTRALIA

Australia wheat areas will be mainly dry through the week. Dry conditions are unfavorable for early growth of the wheat crop.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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