DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a trough over the northern Pacific extending into the Gulf of Alaska, a ridge with above normal heights covering northwest and central areas of Canada and a trough over far east Canada extending to Greenland and the Arctic Circle. The southern branch of the jet stream shows a trough off the west coast of the U.S., another trough lifting north from the central Rockies into the northern plains and a ridge over the northwest and central Midwest areas. We also note a weak trough over the southeast Gulf of Mexico and the northwest Caribbean sea. The subtropical ridge centers are weak today, indicated in Mexico and southern Texas and near the Bahamas'.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European models are in only fair agreement today. I favor a combination of today's model runs and yesterday's ideas. This is a very complex weather pattern at this time. Several areas to watch. The trough over the western U.S. continues to feature chances for scattered rains over the northern plains crop region and at times the western Midwest area during the short and the extended range periods. This should also include the southeast portion of the Canadian Prairies grain belt but the balance of the Canadian Prairies region remains somewhat drier. The trough in the Gulf of Mexico continues to show signs of picking up a low now in the northwest Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula and bringing it northward. The U.S. model continues to feature a track further east than the European model would suggest. A compromise between the models suggests a target somewhere in the southeast U.S., most likely between eastern Mississippi and western Georgia, centering on Alabama. Development on this system would be slow to occur however heavy rains would occurred regardless of development. The south-central U.S. ridge remains in the picture and ranges from the southern plains to the western Delta. This will promote above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall for the region, especially from southern Kansas southward, likely including much of Arkansas as well. A weak to moderate jet stream continues to move just north of the south-central U.S. ridge position which means a few thunderstorms could occur, at times, from central Kansas northward into Nebraska. The area likely sees above or well above normal temperatures and overall near to below normal rainfall but some local areas may benefit from the local thunderstorm activity.

Finally, today's U.S. model features a deepening of the eastern Canada trough late in the period. As a result of this the model sends a somewhat cooler surface high southward into the Midwest region at the end of the ten day period. This may, if real, increase the chance for rain in the Midwest, on the cold front ahead of this high. However, as this is a new feature and it is not supported by the other models I am tending to shy away from this idea, for now.

By Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...103 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW WED...26 AT LEADVILLE CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY…COLUMBUS GA 4.26 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in only fair agreement today. I favor a combination of today's model runs and yesterday's ideas.

This is a very complex weather pattern at this time. Several areas to watch.

The trough over the western US continues to feature chances for scattered rains over the northern plains crop region and at times the western Midwest area during the short and the extended range periods. This should also include the southeast portion of the Canadian Prairies grain belt but the balance of the Canadian Prairies region remains somewhat drier. The trough in the Gulf of Mexico continues to show signs of picking up a low now in the northwest Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula and bringing it northward. The US model continues to feature a track further east than the European model would suggest. A compromise between the models suggests a target somewhere in the southeast US, most likely between eastern Mississippi and western Georgia, centering on Alabama. Development on this system would be slow to occur however heavy rains would occurred regardless of development. The south-central US ridge remains in the picture and ranges from the southern plains to the western Delta. This will promote above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall for the region, especially from southern Kansas southward, likely including much of Arkansas as well. A weak to moderate jet stream continues to move just north of the south-central US ridge position which means a few thunderstorms could occur, at times, from central Kansas northward into Nebraska. The area likely sees above or well above normal temperatures and overall near to below normal rainfall but some local areas may benefit from the local thunderstorm activity.

Finally, today's US model features a deepening of the eastern Canada trough late in the period. As a result of this the model sends a somewhat cooler surface high southward into the Midwest region at the end of the ten day period. This may, if real, increase the chance for rain in the Midwest, on the cold front ahead of this high. However, as this is a new feature and it is not supported by the other models I am tending to shy away from this idea, for now.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

Tropical: We continue to monitor the potential for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico within the next 5 days. The early call on this is for heavy rains in the southeast US region during the 3-6 day time frame. This may include high winds if a tropical does form. This is somewhat uncertain at this time so stay tuned to the latest developments.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Dryness is of increasing concern for crop areas of the southwest belt, especially with the current well above normal temperature pattern. Elsewhere in the region mostly favorable conditions for planting, germination and early development at this time.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT): A few showers and isolated thundershowers will be in the region during the 3-5 day period especially from central Kansas northward. However, the activity last night also occurred as far south as the Texas Panhandle. Hot temperatures surge northward during this period as well, increasing stress on developing winter wheat and any early planted summer crops.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Generally favorable conditions for planting and developing spring wheat, corn and soybeans throughout the northern plains. Episodes of scattered showers help to ease dryness concerns.

DELTA/SOUTHEAST US: Heavy rains are likely to hit the southeast US crop belt during the next 7 days. This may also include a tropical system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. Development of any tropical would be slow to occur due to wind shear currently over the region. However, the heavy rain would occur even without development of a tropical. It is uncertain whether this rain would hit as far west as the Delta crop belt. I favor a track that would keep the action east of the Delta at this time.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): I see no significant chances for rain in the region during the next 10 days. Temperatures likely averaging above to mostly well above normal.

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Brazil Corn: A strong cold front brought moderate to heavy rain to Parana, light to moderate with locally heavier in the Mato Grosso during the weekend period. This will ease stress to pollinating and filling corn. However the dry season remains well established with further losses to later developing corn likely.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): Favorable weather for planting spring wheat and canola at this time. Dryness is becoming of increasing concern. A portion of Manitoba received beneficial rainfall during the weekend period. A second disturbance will bring beneficial rains to eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba during the next couple of days. The drier pattern appears to be easing somewhat in eastern areas while central and west areas continue under a below normal rainfall pattern at this time.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT, WINTER RAPESEED): Generally favorable moisture conditions for filling crops.

CHINA (CORN AND SOYBEANS): Key growing areas of northeast China received beneficial rainfall early this week. The highest amounts and best coverage favored the key corn growing areas while the main soybean areas also had light to locally moderate showers as well. This should favor development of recently planting crops while briefly delaying the planting effort. The longer range outlook shows a drier pattern during the next 10 days, with some periods of above or well above normal temperatures.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Rain is needed in West Australia to support wheat planting. A cold front passage at the end of this week may bring some shower activity to the area but probably not enough to encourage widespread planting.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Light showers with locally heavy showers in northwest and far west areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal west, near to above normal east.

Forecast...

West: Light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with locally heavier favoring north and west areas later today or during tonight. Light to locally moderate showers favoring eastern and southern areas during Friday. Mainly dry Saturday.

Temperatures average well above normal during this period. Highs well into the 80s today, 80s and low 90s Friday, low to middle 90s Saturday.

Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring northern and western areas during Tuesday. Temperatures average well above normal during this period. Highs low to middle 90s Sunday, upper 80s to low 90s Monday, 80s Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry today. A few light showers with locally heavier favoring north and west areas Friday, east and south locations Saturday. Temperatures average above to well above normal. Highs mostly in the 80s, except low 90s may be reached in western areas Saturday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average well above normal. Highs upper 80s to low 90s Sunday, middle 80s to near 90 Monday, low to upper 80s Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal.

Rainfall near to above normal west and southeast areas, near to below normal elsewhere in the east.

Delta (Corn, Soybeans, Cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers and thundershowers occurred in southern and western areas during the past 24 hours. Much of this activity occurred outside of the main growing areas. Dry or with only a few light showers elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast: A few light showers with isolated heavier today and Friday. Mainly dry Saturday. Temperatures average a few degrees above normal.

Mainly dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier, favoring eastern areas, Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may reach to southern and eastern Mississippi during Tuesday. Dry or with only a few light showers elsewhere in the region Tuesday. Temperatures average a few degrees above normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal. Rainfall depends entirely on a potential tropical moving near this area from the Gulf of Mexico. It appears that the heavy rains will stay east of the key Delta crop areas, hitting instead from eastern Miss and Alabama through Georgia. However, the activity may come close. At this time I would forecast near to below normal rain for the Delta crop belt but this is an uncertain forecast.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: Scattered thundershower activity occurred mainly in southern and east-central Montana and portions of South Dakota during the past 24 hours.

Isolated thundershowers in North Dakota favoring south-central and west locations. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers mainly in eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota today or tonight. Mainly dry Friday. Scattered showers redevelop in Montana during Saturday. Temperatures average well above normal. Highs reach the upper 80s to low 90s by Saturday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers will be in the region Sunday and Monday, lingering the eastern areas into Tuesday. Rainfall potential appears to be 0.30-1.50 inches and locally heavier for southern Montana, South Dakota and southern North Dakota. Northern North Dakota and northern Minnesota may see 0.25-0.75 inch during this period. Temperatures average well above normal Sunday, above to well above normal Monday and Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall should average near to above normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Scattered thundershowers, 0.25-1.00 inch and locally heavier, occurred yesterday or overnight last night from the northern Texas Panhandle through northwest Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. Mainly dry or with only isolated activity elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast: Isolated to widely scattered thundershowers favoring central and northeast areas mainly occurring late today or during tonight. Showers may linger in eastern areas early Friday, drier elsewhere in the region Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures average above to well above normal today, well above normal Friday and Saturday. High temperatures move well into the 90s during this period, possibly 100F in southwest and south-central areas by Saturday.

Dry or with only a few light showers and isolated thundershowers favoring the central Kansas area and southern Nebraska Sunday and Monday. Scattered thundershowers may develop in southern Nebraska and northern Kansas during Tuesday. Temperatures average well above normal. Highs low 90s to near or a little above 100 Sunday and Monday, upper 80s to upper 90s Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal. Rainfall near to below normal north, below normal south.

By Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(SK)

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Joel Burgio