DTN Early Word Grains

It's a Green Grain Morning

**USDA's Export Sales report was postponed until Friday, March 23rd after this writing**

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

May corn was 2 cents higher, May soybeans were 1 cent higher, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 3 cents higher.

CME Globex Recap:

The grain and oilseed complex was higher, for the most part, early Thursday with only oils under pressure. In other words, soybean oil, canola, and Malaysian palm oil were in the red while soybeans and soybean meal continue their recent rally. Crude oil was down a bit following Wednesday's rally while metals continue to move higher despite a stabilizing U.S. dollar. DJIA futures were showing a triple-digit loss, hinting at another exciting day in equities.

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OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 44.96 points (0.2%) lower at 24,682.31, the NASDAQ Composite lost 19.02 points (0.3%) to 7,345.29, and the S&P 500 dipped 5.01 points (0.2%) to 2,711.93 Wednesday. DJIA futures were 147 points lower early Thursday morning. Asian markets closed mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 211.02 points (1.0%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 343.47 points (1.1%), and China's Shanghai Composite losing 17.47 points (0.5%). European markets were trading lower with London's FTSE 100 down 35.68 points (0.5%), Germany's DAX losing 122.96 points (1.0%), and France's CAC 40 off 51.92 points (1.0%). The euro was 0.0009 lower at 1.2329 while the U.S. dollar index was unchanged at 89.70. June 30-year T-Bonds were 1 4/32 higher at 144'20 while April gold gained $7.20 to $1,328.70. Crude oil was $0.41 lower at $64.76 as Brent crude dropped $0.64 to $68.83. China's Dalian soybean futures were higher and Malaysian palm oil futures were lower overnight.

BULL BEAR
1) Corn weekly export sales and shipment data (for the week ending Thursday, March 15) is expected to be bullish. 1) Corn contracts, both old-crop and new-crop, remain in minor (short-term) downtrends on daily charts.
2) Soybeans have seen renewed commercial buying this week as projections for Argentine production continue to be trimmed. 2) Soybean weekly export sales and shipment numbers (for the week ending Thursday, March 15) are expected to be bearish.
3) July KC wheat looks to be nearing a turn to a minor (short-term) uptrend. 3) This week's export demand update for wheat is expected to be bearish

The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN Are you ready for this? Corn led the rally in grain and oilseeds overnight into Thursday morning. Contracts were showing two-cent gains, breaking out of the "fractional this or that" usually talked about in this space. Technically, both old-crop May and new-crop December remain in minor (short-term) downtrends on their daily charts, though holding support at $3.74 1/2 (May) and $3.95 1/2 (Dec). Fundamentally traders are looking forward to Thursday's weekly sales and shipment update, for the week ending Thursday, March 15, expecting another large set of numbers. While corn is still expected to be behind shipment pace needed to hit export projections, unshipped sales are also expected to continue to grow.

SOYBEANS Soybeans continue to gnaw away at Monday's sharp sell-off, gaining about 9 cents of it back including the nearly 2-cent rally overnight into Thursday morning. Technically both old-crop May and new-crop November remain in minor (short-term) downtrends, posting interesting patterns on their respective daily charts. Fundamentally, old-crop has seen the return of light commercial buying interest as estimates for Argentina's production dip below 40 mmt. In its March report, USDA guessed this to be 47 mmt. Still, the carry in the May-to-July futures spread remains bearish heading into this week's round of export sales and shipment numbers (for the week ending Thursday, March 15). Shipments are expected to still be running behind pace to meet USDA's current demand projection of 2.065 bb. Given last week's strengthening carry (in the futures spread), keep an eye out for possibly sales cancelations in Thursday's report.

WHEAT Winter wheat markets rallied overnight, with new-crop July Kansas City continuing its bounce off Wednesday's low of $4.76 1/4. This kept it off next support at $4.69 3/4, setting the stage for a possible move back into a minor (short-term) uptrend on its daily chart. For those with DTN Strategies, keep an eye out for a possible option position recommendation change. Fundamentally there isn't much fresh news for wheat, with dry conditions still seen over much of the U.S. Southern Plains. As for weekly export sales and shipment numbers, well, expectations aren't overly bullish so wheat traders probably won't pay much attention to Thursday's set of data.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $3.38 $0.01 -$0.37 May $0.005
Soybeans: $9.51 $0.01 -$0.79 May -$0.003
SRW Wheat: $4.20 $0.00 -$0.33 May -$0.006
HRW Wheat: $4.23 -$0.05 -$0.42 May -$0.003
HRS Wheat: $5.71 -$0.04 -$0.19 May $0.002

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

(KR)

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