DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...95 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW WED...4 BELOW ZERO AT BERLIN NH AND PRESQUE ISLE ME AND SARANAC LAKE NY

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY…HARRISBURG PA 1.03 INCHES.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first couple of days of the outlook period, fair agreement during the balance of the period. I favor a compromise between the models but with a slight bias towards today's US model.

An upper level trough and cut off low is expected to move from the southern Rockies across the southern portion of the southern plains and the Delta during the early and middle part of this period, weakening and lifting north as it moves into the eastern US later in the period. The heaviest rain associated with this system will likely occur from east Texas into the Delta, possibly featuring very heavy rains. There is a significant chance that the north-central Texas and southwest Oklahoma wheat areas will receive much needed rain when this system moves through. The driest areas of the wheat belt, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas might see a little light rain or drizzle but it is unlikely that there will be enough to ease drought conditions. The European model also shows a trailing trough the moves out of the Gulf of Mexico into the southeast US at the end of the period. This might mean that Alabama and Georgia would also get into the heavy rain. However, the US model shows the trough lifting north through the south and east Midwest and into the northeast US at that time and only shows a straight cold front passage in the southeast at the end of the period.

The model also both show the polar vortex moving southward into the Hudson Bay area of Canada during the later part of the period. This suggests a chance for colder weather to redevelop in south-central Canada and maybe even the Midwest. The European model has some colder weather arriving sooner than the US model suggests.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTH PLAINS (LIVESTOCK): The North Dakota region is expected to see snow with melted precipitation of 0.25 to 0.50 inch centered on Friday. The crop area will benefit from the added moisture but the snow will lead to transport delays and will be somewhat unfavorable for livestock, at least for a time.

MIDWEST (SPRING FIELD WORK): Episodes of rain, some snow and periods of colder temperatures will likely lead to delays in early spring field work during the next 7 to 10 days. Wet conditions or snow may impact many areas early in the period. Later in the period the south and east may be wetter than the west. We also note a period of warmer weather for the region early in the 6-10 day period before it turns colder again later in the period.

DELTA: Drier and warmer weather at the end of this week and this weekend may improve conditions for spring field work somewhat. However, rain will likely return to the area during the early or middle part of next week and this rain could be very heavy.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): Well above normal temperatures push readings to near 90F Friday in the driest areas of the southwest wheat belt, increasing stress to the crop. Red flag warnings will likely expand north into Kansas tomorrow. A somewhat more active southern branch trough suggests a chance for needed rains to occur in north-central Texas and southwest Oklahoma early next week. It is unlikely that the driest areas of the region, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwest Kansas, will see much from this system but a little light rain or a few showers may develop. Areas to the north will see little during the next 10 days.

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEAN): Very dry conditions continues to impact corn and soybean development in Cordoba and Santa Fe after the failure of last weekends system to reach into these important growing areas. There is no significant rainfall in sight.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS, CORN): No significant concerns at this time for maturing and harvesting of soybeans and first crop corn or development of second crop corn.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE,SUGARCANE): Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms that began yesterday will continue and expand in coverage today and Friday.

This may favor late filling maize and sugarcane but it will be unfavorable for the maturing crop and could delay the early harvest.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal west, below normal east.

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East: A little light precipitation was reported in the region during the past

24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast...

West: Dry or with only a little very light precipitation in southern areas today. Moderate to locally heavy snow and rain, 0.25-1.25 inch melted, develops Friday and lingers in the eastern areas early Saturday. Drier later Saturday.

Snowfall of 4 inches or more is most likely for eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, north-central and northeast Iowa. Mostly rain or rain ending as a little snow elsewhere in the region. Temperatures average below normal north and east and above normal southwest today, near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday.

Dry early Sunday, light rain or drizzle later in the day with showers or light rain at night. Light to moderate showers favoring southern and eastern areas during Monday. Dry or with only lingering light rain southeast locations Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday and Tuesday.

East: Dry or with only a little light precipitation developing through southwest areas later today or during tonight. Snow and rain develops in the west and spreads through central and southern areas of the east during Friday and Saturday. Precipitation totals are expected to average 0.25-1.25 inch through Illinois, west and south Indiana, south Ohio and Kentucky. Little is expected in north and northeast areas due to this system. Snow of 4 inches or more is most likely in northern Illinois, central Indiana and southern Ohio.

Temperatures average below normal west, below to well below normal east.

Mostly dry Sunday. Rain or showers develops in west and north areas Monday or Monday night. Rain or showers through eastern and southern areas during Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal Sunday and early Monday, warmer later Monday, much warmer Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal during the first few days of the outlook period, somewhat colder towards the end of the period. Precipitation near to above normal south and east, near to below normal northwest.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to below normal for the morning lows, near to above normal for the afternoon highs.

Forecast: Dry today and most of Friday. Light rain may occur Friday night in southern Nebraska and extreme northeast Kansas. Mostly dry Saturday.

Temperatures average above normal today, well above normal Friday, above to well above normal Saturday. The high temperatures Friday are expected to reach the middle to upper 80s in southwest and south-central Kansas, west Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Low 80s may occur as far north as northwest and north-central Kansas Friday.

Light showers with locally heavier east, fair west, Sunday. Showers and thundershowers through eastern and southern Oklahoma, north-central and northeast Texas between Monday and Tuesday. This activity may become locally heavy. Very heavy rain is likely to occur from east Texas into the Delta late in this period or during next Wednesday. Light rain or showers may also develop through the Texas Panhandle and possibly into southwest Kansas Tuesday or Wednesday. Little elsewhere in the winter wheat belt during this period.

Temperatures average near to above normal north and above normal south Sunday, above normal Monday, near to below normal north and above normal south Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall mostly below normal north and central areas, near to below normal southwest, near to above normal south-central and southeast.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Friday. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers develop in southern areas during Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal today, above normal tomorrow and Saturday.

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers in Parana and Santa Catarina during Sunday and Monday. Mainly dry in RGDS during these days.

Showers and thundershowers should develop in RGDS during Tuesday. Temperatures average near to below normal south and near to above normal north Sunday and Monday, above normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: A few thundershowers in southern MGDS yesterday. Dry or with only isolated shower activity otherwise. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few showers and thundershowers favoring northwest areas tomorrow and during Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal.

Scattered to widely scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers in Mato Grosso and MGDS during Sunday and Monday. Little in Goias during this time. Temperatures near to mostly above normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. A few light showers with locally heavier during Friday and Friday night. Mainly dry Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal today and Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average below to well below normal Sunday, Monday and early Tuesday. Warmer later Tuesday.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Scattered light to locally moderate showers in southern Buenos Aires during Friday, favoring south coastal locations. Dry or with only a few light showers in La Pampa during this time. Mainly dry Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal today and Friday, below normal Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average below to well below normal Sunday and Monday, somewhat warmer Tuesday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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Joel Burgio