DTN Midday Livestock Comments

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle trade remains firmly higher with gains developing in both live cattle and feeder cattle markets. There is growing support across the complex as traders not only focus on the direction of nearby futures, but are also keeping close tabs on the movement in cash cattle markets and beef values. Hog markets have trended lower through the morning, with concerns of recent gains may be unable to hold. Corn prices are lower in light trade. March corn futures are 2 cents lower Thursday. Stock markets are higher in light trade. The Dow Jones is 164 points higher while Nasdaq is up 16 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Light to moderate buyer activity has slowly trickled into the live cattle market Thursday morning following the firm buyer support which has been seen through the week. With prices able to hold the bullish market tone which has pushed nearby contracts above $125 per cwt, the focus on market stability through the end of the week is not only helping to build technical support, but sparking underlying fundamental support through the entire complex. This may add trade volume through the rest of the market, as buyers may continue to step into the complex at the end of the session. Cash cattle interest is improving through the morning with bids seen in all areas with live cattle bids seen at $122 per cwt while dressed bids are developing at $193 to $194 per cwt. At this point, it is uncertain if any significant trade will develop before Friday, but the fact that improved interest may bring more volume to the table. Asking prices are holding at $127 and higher live basis while dressed asking prices are seen at $200 to $202 per cwt. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $1.27 higher (select) and up $0.22 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 63 total loads reported (34 loads of choice cuts, 17 loads of select cuts, 7 loads of trimmings, 5 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Most feeder cattle contracts are holding moderate to firm gains Thursday morning. The overall firm market activity in the complex has limited trade in front month January contracts, although the tone of the market remains strong. January futures are trading 27 cents per cwt lower as traders are trying to roll contracts to the March and April futures contract months. This has allowed for gains in these string contracts to maintain gains of 50 to 60 cents per cwt as traders are also trying to follow the renewed support developing in the live cattle trade.

LEAN HOGS:

Moderate to strong market pressure is seen through the lean hog futures trade with nearby contracts hovering lower. April contracts are leading the market lower with a $1.05 per cwt setting the tone of the market. There is likely to be some additional market shifts that may develop over the near future, although trade volume through the rest of the session is expected to remain sluggish. Front month February futures remain 15 cents lower, but the overall lack of interest in this nearby contract has moved most of the pressure to April through August contracts with traders focusing on longer term direction. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $0.29 at $69.61 per cwt with the range from $67.00 to $71.00 on 5,267 head reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $0.18 at $69.98 per cwt with the range from $67.00 to $71.00 on 1,652 head reported sold. The National Pork Plant Report posted 156 loads selling with carcass values adding $0.24 per cwt. Lean hog index for 1/23 is at $73.80 up $0.41 with a projected two-day index of $73.77, down $0.03.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

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