Canada Markets

The USDA released an early outlook on corn and soybean seeded acre estimates for 2018 in the United States this week, with estimates pointing to acres expected to equal at 90 million acres. This would suggest corn acres would fall by 200,000 acres from the area planted in 2017 and would be a 4-million-acre drop from 2016. Soybean acres are estimated to fall by 100,000 acres from the estimate for 2017, which would be 6.6 million acres higher than estimated for 2016.

The attached graphic shows the 25-year trend in Canada's corn and soybean seeded acres (1993-2017). While a similar trend remained in place through 2008, soybean acres (brown line) have charted a new course, which early estimates suggest may continue in 2018.

Early indications from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada suggest that 2018 acres seeded to soybeans will reach 7.413 million acres, up for the third straight year and the 10th time in 11 years. This would be up 1.8% from the estimated seeded acres for 2017 and 6.4% higher than the 10-year trend (2008-2017).

The same report estimates corn acres seeded will reach 3.644 million acres, up 1.9% from 2017 and 2% above the lower slope on the crop's 25-year trend. Since 2008, estimated acres planted to soybeans have moved from 8,800 acres fewer than corn to an estimated 3.768 million acres more than corn in 2018, or 103% higher overall.

In 2017, 75% of the year-over-year growth in national soybean acres was due to expansion on the prairie provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, to account for 43% of the national acreage.

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