DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...114 AT THERMAL CA AND DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW WED...35 AT WATTON MI

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM WEDNESDAY...HUNTSVILLE AL 0.94 INCHES

U.S. OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in western Canada, a strong ridge across the Rockies and Canadian Prairies, a weakened low across the South, and a trough in the Northeast. The trough in western Canada will take the top off the ridge as it moves east through the weekend. It will likely stall in Hudson Bay and eastern Canada for next week. But the ridge will continue to remain firm across the Rockies into next week and expand eastward as it pushes the Northeast trough offshore. This will set up a storm track near the U.S.-Canada border for next week.

The U.S. and European models are in general agreement. I will favor the European with differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be near to above normal across the country, which should continue through next week, though we could see some cooling in the Northeast next weekend. A front will push through the northern tier of the country early-to-mid next week with scattered showers. The front to the system may stall across the Corn Belt with continued showers.

Another quick-moving system could do the same late in the week. Meanwhile, daily showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Gulf Coast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Near triple-digit heat continues for the next several days. Stress continues to mount for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans and has taken a massive toll on spring wheat. A front may bring some scattered showers on Friday, and isolated showers may continue into next week, but the heat will continue through the end of July and the showers are unlikely to have more than a local benefit.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier conditions continue for the next few days outside of some very isolated showers. Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the weekend and next week. Overall, conditions are favorable for the remaining wheat harvest and developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. But if rain does not come with the heat, we could see stress developing for corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A frontal boundary continues to produce some showers for northern sections of the region this week, but amounts are very limited. Another front will move through the region with more scattered showers this weekend, especially across the north. The front may stay active across the region into early next week with isolated shower chances. Heat will spread across the region over the next few days, stressing developing to reproductive corn and soybeans in drier sections of the region, particularly in the northwest. Conditions continue to be much better across the southeast where drier conditions will allow more saturated soils to drain and hasten crop development.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Isolated showers will remain in the region into next week, being mostly favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and soybeans.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Some isolated showers moved across the region this week but most areas have seen very little precipitation and has not significantly impacted the drought. Isolated showers will remain possible for the next week, though amounts are not expected to be very helpful for reproductive to filling spring wheat and canola. Temperatures mostly above normal will continue to stress the crops as well.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Recent frosts across Parana and Rio Grande do Sul were another layer of adverse weather conditions for filling safrinha corn. Dry weather through this weekend will not be favorable for crops but it is getting too late to have much of an impact as corn matures. Wheat across the south is faring better but could still use more moisture. A front early next week could provide some beneficial rains for wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness continues through Saturday. Even with limited rainfall recently, soil moisture continues to be favorable for most of the winter wheat areas. A larger system is forecast to develop Sunday into early next week with widespread precipitation that should be beneficial.

EUROPE (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Dryness in Germany this week helped the region to recover from flooding. Outside of some localized areas that are having issues, favorable conditions are noted for most of the growing regions for wheat and corn. The next system moves into western areas Friday into the weekend and could be concerning for flooded and saturated areas.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Recent hot temperatures are being pushed aside as a frontal boundary works slowly across the region. The front is bringing scattered showers, which will help to improve soil moisture after the heatwave. Even with the heat over the last week, most areas have had enough soil moisture to get by except for the Volga Valley region of Russia.

Dryness here may have had some negative impacts to wheat and corn. Dryness follows the system, however, and more showers would be welcome for those areas that get missed this week. That may come mid-late next week in Ukraine but is questionable whether or not showers will occur for much of Russia.

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CENTRAL RUSSIA/KAZAKHSTAN (SPRING WHEAT/GRAINS): Showers over eastern areas will continue better overall conditions in this portion of the region while western areas dry out under poor condition.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): An active storm track will continue to bring periods of showers to the region over the next week, maintaining overall favorable conditions for vegetative winter wheat and canola in most areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Periods of widespread showers and relatively stable temperatures continue favoring developing corn and soybeans.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Monsoon showers have been a little disappointing in the northwestern quarter of the country thus far, but are in the area. Some cotton areas are doing better than others due to the discrepancy. Showers have been much more consistent and heavier across the east and south for soybeans.

This pattern likely continues over the coming week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers far north. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south.

East: Isolated showers northwest. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Isolated showers south Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

East: Isolated showers northwest Thursday. Scattered showers north Friday.

Scattered showers Saturday, mostly north. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Monday.

6-- to 1 day outlook: Isolated showers north Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

6-- to 1 day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Scattered showers south Monday.

Temperatures near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, below normal Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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John Baranick