Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat building across the Western Corn Belt, relative dryness for the week, along with frosts in southern Brazil, are the weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

WESTERN MIDWEST HEAT INCREASING

Heavy rainfall continued to push south through the Midwest with a front this weekend. A frontal boundary will slide south into northern sections of the region this week, producing some isolated showers. Another front will move through the region with more scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures will be above normal for northwestern areas that will continue to be drier as well, continuing to stress developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. Conditions continue to be much better across the southeast. Drier conditions this week will favor development in the southeast, allowing more saturated soils to drain.

RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Southern Plains this weekend, with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall, mostly across central Nebraska and northeast Oklahoma. Some areas dodged showers altogether. The region will get quieter this week, but temperatures should remain on the mild side until Friday. Overall, conditions will be favorable for the remaining wheat harvest and developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

HOT FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Some isolated showers developed in the Northern Plains this weekend, but most areas stayed dry as temperatures rose well into the 90s, with 100s Fahrenheit in Montana. Some showers may develop near the Canadian border this week, but most areas are likely to remain dry as triple-digit temperatures becomes fairly widespread. Stress continues to mount for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans; this has also taken a massive toll on spring wheat. A front may bring some scattered showers Friday, but will be followed by continued heat and little chance for meaningful precipitation for the rest of the July.

OCCASIONAL DELTA SHOWERS

Scattered showers moved into the Delta with a front this weekend, and were heavy across portions of Arkansas and Mississippi, where flooding was a concern last month. Otherwise, scattered showers will remain in the region through the week, being mostly favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and soybeans.

DAILY SOUTHEAST SHOWERS CONTINUING

In the Southeast, daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

HEATWAVE CONTINUES FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Some isolated showers moved across the Canadian Prairies this weekend, but were focused across the north. Limited showers and temperatures above normal will continue to stress reproductive to filling wheat and canola for the next week.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL FROSTS

Scattered showers moved through southern Brazil over the weekend, helping vegetative wheat. But temperatures fell harshly as a front moved through. Some limited frost was possible across Parana and Rio Grande do Sul on Sunday and Monday and will be possible again Tuesday morning as well, harming remaining filling corn. Dry weather this week will not be favorable for crops.

BLACK SEA CATCHING A BREAK

Hot temperatures were noted across Ukraine and western Russia this weekend and any showers were relegated to northern areas that have been drier than the south. Even with the heat over the last week, most areas have had enough soil moisture to get by except for the Volga Valley region of Russia. Dryness here may have had some negative impacts to wheat and corn with the heat. A system over eastern Europe will slowly move through the region this week, offering some shower activity and a break from the intense heat. Dryness follows the system through next weekend, however, and more showers would be welcome for those areas that get missed this week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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