DTN Daily Basis Comments

Friday Morning Basis Update

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:

The national average basis for corn was 1 cent stronger at 7 cents under the May futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was down 4 cents at $5.83. The national average basis for soybeans was 1 cent stronger at 24 cents under the May futures contract while the DTN National Soybean Index was up 9 cents at $13.94. The national average basis for HRW wheat was unchanged at 23 cents under the May futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was up 4 cents at $5.85. The national average basis for HRS wheat was unchanged at 28 cents under the May futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was up 2 cents at $6.35.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $5.83 -$0.04 -$0.07 May $0.003
Soybeans: $13.94 $0.09 -$0.24 May $0.009
SRW Wheat: $6.36 $0.05 -$0.18 May -$0.007
HRW Wheat: $5.85 $0.04 -$0.23 May $0.001
HRS Wheat: $6.35 $0.02 -$0.28 May $0.000

CORN:

The national average corn basis for Thursday is at 7 cents under the May futures, 1 cent stronger than Wednesday's basis. May corn closed down 4 cents, and July was down 2 3/4 as the rest of the complex closed higher Thursday. Even with a higher soybean and wheat close, nearby corn was unable to follow along even after reaching a new high early in the session. Weekly corn export sales and shipments continue to be above what is needed each week to achieve USDA's export estimate in 2020-21. Total corn export commitments are now up 93% from a year ago as of the week ended April 8. The market has not forgotten about the dry weather in Brazil that may stress the second corn crop. Here in the U.S., corn demand remains strong and cash basis is firm for domestic and West Coast export needs. Track PNW basis was steady, while Gulf basis was 4 cents weaker. The strength in corn basis continues to come from ethanol plant demand, which is competing with the export demand on the PNW, especially in the summer months.

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SOYBEANS:

The national average soybean basis for Thursday is at 24 cents under the May futures, 1 cent stronger than Wednesday's basis. May soybeans closed up 8 1/2 cents as the cash price continues to firm due to strong basis and tight supplies. Weekly export sales and shipments for the week ended April 8 remain above what is needed to achieve USDA's export estimate of 2.280 billion bushels (bb) in 2020-21, while total export commitments are up 62% versus one year ago. May soybean meal recovered, closing up $3.60, and soybean oil was up 0.065 cent and continues to lead the complex higher. National Oilseed Processors Association reported a March crush of 177.984 million bushels of soybeans, lower than what the trade estimated and lower than the same month one year ago. The CIF NOLA basis was 2 cents stronger, while processor basis was in the limelight again. Processor basis in southern Minnesota, east-central Iowa and northwest Iowa was 10 cents stronger, and 5 cents stronger in northwest Missouri. It's getting to a point where there aren't enough old-crop soybeans to go around, and the next question will be if we will need to import to feed our needs.

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average SRW wheat basis for Thursday is at 18 cents under the May futures, 1 cent weaker than Wednesday's basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average HRW wheat basis for Thursday is at 23 cents under the Kansas City May futures, unchanged from Wednesday's basis. The KC May futures closed up 4 1/2 cents as the weaker USD and weather concerns for new crop gave the market strength. The KC spot milling premiums for 11.4% were up 5 cents and up 1 cent for 11.4% through 11.6% as mills continue to grade cars that show for sale. The Philippines passed on both of their tenders scheduled for this week.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT:

The national average HRS wheat basis for Thursday is at 28 cents under the Minneapolis May futures, unchanged from Wednesday's basis. The Minneapolis spot spring wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis May futures contract for No. 1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted; 13% proteins were not quoted; 13.5% proteins were unchanged at +125N to +130N; 14% proteins were unchanged to up 5 cents at +120N to +145; 14.5% proteins were unchanged to up 10 cents at +130N to +140; 15% proteins were at +150. Receipts were 26 cars, which included zero train(s).* (Bid=B Ask=A Nominal=N) Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

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Mary Kennedy

Mary Kennedy
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