Commodities Market Impact Weather

Moderate Showers for Midwest

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , DTN/Progressive Farmer Associate Content Manager
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A few systems this week bringing moderate showers for the Midwest, some shower chances for the Northern Plains, and some possible heavy rains for Argentina are the primary weather features for the commodity market's attention Monday.

MODERATE SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

The DTN Ag Weather forecast for the Midwest calls for a few systems to move into the region and stall, with periods of moderate showers continuing through the next week. This should help to increase soil moisture for some of those drier sections of the region. The six- to 10-day outlook sees a few systems bringing chances for more showers next week.

POSSIBLE SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

The Central and Southern Plains will see a couple systems move through the area during the next week, but weather models are having a difficult time figuring out how to develop them. Rainfall in March did a good job of delaying or reducing drought, but drought has been trying to build back in during the last week as it remained hot and dry. The periods of showers this week are not expected to be overly heavy; they will help increase soil moisture, but still allow many farmers get into the fields for early planting.

POSSIBLE SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, a couple systems will move through the area during the next week, but there is model uncertainty on how they develop. Showers are likely from these systems, but do not look to be drought busters.

STORMS, SHOWERS FOR DELTA

In the Delta, weekend dry conditions allowed soils to dry and producers to get back into their fields. A couple of storm systems will move through the middle of the country during the next week, with brief periods of showers. Showers will keep soils moist, but do not look to cause any more flooding. Still, planting delays will be possible.

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SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

In Brazil, scattered showers started to develop back over central areas during the weekend, easing concerns for second-crop (safrinha) corn establishment and growth. Very little showers occurred over the south, in a reversal of last week. Scattered showers will continue over central growing areas this week. Showers over the central growing areas will be necessary to keep soil moisture from falling early due to later planting dates and the start of the dry season, which will come in a few weeks. Dryness over southern areas will start to cause a concern if frontal systems cannot move north from Argentina.

HEAVY RAIN FOR ARGENTINA

In Argentina, a system this week will slowly move north late Wednesday through the weekend with continuous periods of showers producing heavy rainfall over southern and central growing areas. This would be untimely for maturing crops and could cause quality issues.

COLDER AIR FOR EUROPE

For Europe, milder weather has helped winter crops awaken more from dormancy. A blast of colder air will spread across the continent this week. Several mornings below freezing could affect vulnerable young plants for the next week. Otherwise, soil moisture is favorable for winter crops.

COLD FOR UKRAINE, RUSSIA

In Ukraine and Russia, temperatures remained mostly below normal, delaying winter crops to emerge from dormancy. A blast of cold air moving through Europe will moderate as it gets into the Black Sea region, but temperatures will still be near to below normal during the next week and continue to slow growth. However, with the ample soil moisture from winter, crops should find favorable conditions once they do awaken.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

For South Africa, some isolated showers will be possible this week, but more dryness is expected. Later-planted corn is likely enduring some stress despite the overall wetness earlier this year.

FAVORABLE HARVEST WEATHER FOR AUSTRALIA

In Australia, a tropical cyclone may develop off the east coast later this week, but it will have no significant impact on the eastern agriculture belt as the dryness continues to favor harvest.

INCREASED SHOWERS FOR MALAYSIA

Showers have picked back up across much of Malaysia, though there is still some concern for oil palm in western Malaysia specifically. The increased showers may be enough for the crop going forward, however.

BENEFICIAL SHOWERS FOR CHINA

In China, scattered showers fell across the region this weekend, benefiting developing winter crops and prepping soil moisture for spring crops, which will start to occur in the next week or two.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN INDIA

Scattered showers have started to develop occasionally over the interior of India well in advance of summer planting season for cotton and soybeans, which starts with the monsoon in June.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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Elaine Shein

Elaine Shein
Connect with Elaine: