DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Mike Palmerino
By  Mike Palmerino , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak ridge over Alaska. A trough over northwest and north-central Canada and a weak ridge over northeast Canada and Greenland. This is producing mild temperatures in western Canada, cold/very cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the southwest U.S. A trough over the southern Rockies and southwest Plains. A ridge over the central and eastern U.S. and a trough in the western atlantic. Subtropical high pressure is centered in the central atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The operational runs of the US and European models are in fair-poor agreement during the period. We are going with the European model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough in Alaska and western Canada and a ridge over north-central and northeast Canada extending into Greenland. This will produce This will produce mild/warm temperatures in western Canada, variable central, cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska and eastern pacific. A ridge along and off the west coast of the U.S. A trough over the southwest U.S. A ridge over the eastern U.S. and a trough in the western atlantic. The trough in the southwest will become the focus of potentially significant precipitation in the south-central U.S. during the 8-10 day period.

This would include the southern plains and Delta states and possibly parts of the southern and eastern Midwest by day 10. Temperature will be above to much above normal in the central U.S. with this pattern except turning cooler over the south-central U.S. late in the period due to developing storminess.

This pattern will feature above to much above normal temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation below normal through 7 days, below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east days 8-10. The northern plains will see above to much above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see above to much above normal temperatures during the next 7 days, variable days 8-10. Precipitation below normal during the next 7 days, near to above normal days 8-10. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, above normal days 6-10. Precipitation mostly below normal during the next 7 days, near to above normal days 8-10.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...73 AT VENICE FL, VERO BEACH FL AND WEST PALM BEACH FL LOW THU...32 BELOW ZERO AT ANTERO RESERVOIR CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…SEATTLE WA .74 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The operational runs of the US and European models are in fair-poor agreement during the period. We are going with the European model. The southern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge along and off the west coast of the US. A trough over the southwest US. A ridge over the eastern US. And a trough in the western atlantic. The trough in the southwest will become the focus of potentially significant precipitation in the south-central US during the 8-10 day period. This would include the southern plains and Delta states and possibly parts of the southern and eastern Midwest by day 10. Temperature will be above to much above normal in the central US with this pattern except turning cooler over the south-central US late in the period due to developing storminess.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/FULL SEASON CORN): Favorable weather will continue for developing corn and soybeans throughout the major growing areas. Hot/dry weather over northeast areas is impacting soybean planting and development with crop losses likely.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEAN/WHEAT/SUNFLOWER): More rain is needed to support corn and soybean planting and development throughout the major growing areas of central Argentina. Scattered showers expected on Friday will not be enough to end concerns. A return to mostly dry and hot weather is expected during the early to middle part of next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible later next week. However, this is a long range forecast and highly subject to change.

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN,SOYBEANS,LIVESTOCK): Mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures during the next 7 days will allow for some corn harvest to occur and favor livestock.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): More precipitation would benefit winter wheat. Some significant precipitation is possible during the

8-10 day period.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT): Mostly dry weather and above to much above normal temperatures during the next 7 days will favor the remaining corn harvest and other fieldwork.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Maize areas received heavy rainfall during the early part of December. This means adequate to surplus soil moisture for early planted crops. Shower activity will be limited during the next 5 days.

P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

AUSTRALIA (SORGHUM/COTTON/SUGARCANE): Dryness remains of much concern in key summer crop growing areas at this time. Drought impact to sorghum, cotton and sugarcane can be expected. Sorghum and cotton are normally more drought resistant than other crops and cotton is mostly irrigated. However, the extreme nature of this weather pattern is still likely to impact these crops.

OTHER KEY WORLD CROP AREAS (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Recent rainfall in India and increasing precipitation in China will improve conditions for winter wheat and rapeseed crops. Wet weather in western Europe remains a concern. Very warm through east Europe, Ukraine and west Russia this week. Temperatures averaging at least 6-12 degrees above normal (F) during the next 5 days or longer. This means no protected snow cover at this time, in the event of an unexpected cold snap.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybean and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Dry conditions. Temperatures above to much above normal.

East: Dry conditions. Temperatures variable.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days. Temperatures above to much above normal.

East: Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days. Temperatures above to much above normal.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures above normal. Precipitation below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east.

Central and Southern Plains (Winter Wheat/livestock)

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures much above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, above to much above normal Sunday-Thursday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation near to above normal.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn…

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana…

Summary: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures variable.

Forecast: Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday-Saturday. Some moderate to heavy totals are expected. Dry conditions or just a few light showers in Parana Sunday-Monday. Dry weather Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, variable Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, variable Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered light showers with locally heavier. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Daily episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next

7 days. Rainfall totals during the next 3 days will be light to moderate with locally heavier. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, variable Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, variable Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower…

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Dry conditions or just a few light showers with locally heavier.

Temperatures near to above normal with highs in the 90s f.

Forecast: Scattered light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with locally heavier Friday. Mostly dry weather Saturday-Wednesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Thursday. Temperatures variable Friday, near to below normal Saturday, variable Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires.

Summary: Scattered light showers. Temperatures near to above normal with highs in the middle 80s to low 90s f.

Forecast: Scattered light showers Friday. Dry weather Saturday-Tuesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, variable Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

P[L2] D[728x90] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[R1] D[300x250] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[R2] D[300x250] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
DIM[1x3] LBL[] SEL[] IDX[] TMPL[standalone] T[]
P[R3] D[300x250] M[0x0] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

Mike Palmerino