Canada Markets

In August, Statistics Canada reports that Canada's merchandise exports fell by 2.9% and imports fell by 1.7%, while Canada's trade surplus with the rest of the world fell from $2.4 billion to $1.5 billion, the smallest trade surplus seen in 2022. A drop in energy product exports in August was largely behind the results, although Statistics Canada notes a 7.1% drop in the exports of farm, fishing and intermediate food products, with sharp drops noted for both wheat and canola exports due to historically low stocks carried out of the 2021-22 crop year.

The following is a look at miscellaneous trade data for crops and products where monthly data provides a more complete picture than the weekly data provided by the Canadian Grain Commission.

Canada's August lentil exports totaled 115,441 metric tons, the smallest volume moved in four months due to tight stocks but still the largest August movement in four years, although by a slim margin. By far the largest volume was shipped to India, or 41% of the volume, which is the largest monthly volume shipped to this destination in 2022. August exports were 28.1% higher than reported in 2021 and 16% higher than the five-year average. This volume accounts for 5% of the 2.3 million metric ton export forecast released by AAFC, slightly behind the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Dry pea exports totaled 70,971 mt in August, also signaling a slow start to the crop year. This was the smallest volume shipped in six months and the smallest August shipments realized in at least the 13 years checked. A reported 34.6% of this volume was shipped to Bangladesh, while 23% of this volume moved to the U.S. The August volume shipped is down 38% from the volume shipped in August 2021 while is down 43.5% from the five-year average. Total exports are 2.6% of the current AAFC forecast of 2.7 mmt, while behind the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

August chickpea exports totaled 19,496 mt, the smallest volume shipped in five months while the largest August volume shipped in at least the 13 years checked. This volume is 67% higher than reported for the same month in 2021 and 201% higher than the five-year average. Exports for 2022-23 now account for 13% of AAFC's 150,000 mt export target, while ahead of the pace needed to reach this forecast.

Mustard exports of 5,678 mt were up slightly from July but still the smallest August exports achieved in at least 13 years. This volume is down 25.4% from the same month in 2021 and 27% lower than the five-year average for the month. August exports have reached 4.9% of the 115,000 mt forecast released by AAFC, while being behind the pace needed to reach the current export forecast.

Canary seed exports in August totaled 21,633 mt, the largest monthly volume shipped in eight months and the largest August volume shipped in at least 13 years. A reported 37% of this volume was shipped to Mexico, or 7,985 mt, the largest monthly volume shipped to this country in 10 years. Total exports are up 139% from one year ago and up 108% from the five-year average, accounting for 14.9% of the current 145,000 mt export forecast, well ahead of the pace to reach this volume.

Canada exported 115,528 mt of soybeans in August, down from the previous month. The largest volume, or 39,511 mt, was shipped to Japan, while 12,261 mt was shipped to the United States. Total 2021-22 crop year exports total 4.233 mmt, down 4.8% from the previous crop year and 4.2% below the five-year average. Total exports forecast by AAFC have been left unchanged at 4 mmt, so actual exports exceeded this volume.

Corn exports in August totaled 108,451 mt, up from the previous month while the largest August volume shipped in four years. The largest share of this volume was shipped to the United Kingdom, where two-thirds or 72,127 mt was shipped. Corn exports in 2021-22 total 1.746 mmt, up 23.3% from the previous year and 27.6% higher than the five-year average, the largest exports in four years. In September, AAFC reduced their corn export forecast from 2 mmt to 1.930 mmt, a volume higher than the actual volume shipped.

Canada's corn imports totaled 308,144 mt in August, the smallest volume of imports seen in 10 months. Total imports are shown at a record 6.1 mmt, up 280% from the previous year while up 266% from the five-year average. Total imports came in just under the government's September estimate of 6.2 mmt.

Canada's canola oil exports totaled 209,930 mt in August, the largest volume shipped in three months and up 8.7% from the same month in 2020-21, while 19% below the three-year average. Canola meal exports totaled 377,374 mt in August, up 3.4% from a year ago while 6.7% lower than the three-year average.

Ethanol imports in August totaled 191 million liters, a record for monthly imports, while U.S. data shows 69% of their August exports were shipped to Canada, the largest destination for the month. January through August imports total 1.123 billion liters, up 45.7% from the same period in 2021 and is 46% higher than the three-year average.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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