DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- The average retail price of most fertilizers continues to trend downward, according to retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the end of October and early November 2022.

Only one fertilizer was up or down significantly, which was 10-34-0. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

10-34-0 was 7% lower compared to the prior month. The starter fertilizer had an average price of $759/ton.

Four other fertilizers were just slightly lower. DAP had an average price of $930/ton, MAP $981/ton, potash $857/ton and urea $826/ton.

The remaining three fertilizers were slightly more expensive than at this time last year. Anhydrous had an average price of $1,426/ton, UAN28 $583/ton and UAN32 $680/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.90/lb.N, anhydrous $0.87/lb.N, UAN28 $1.04/lb.N and UAN32 $1.06/lb.N.

The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) send a letter to Congressional leadership on Monday urging Congress to act to prevent a potential rail strike, which would result in fertilizer and fertilizer inputs being embargoed roughly five days prior to the strike, according to a TFI press release.

"We warned that the U.S. couldn't afford a rail strike in September, and this still remains true today," TFI President and CEO Corey Rosenbusch. "The movement of fertilizer is greatly dependent on rail throughout the year. A rail strike would be devastating to fertilizer manufacturing and to fertilizer distribution to the farmers, who need it to grow the food on which the world depends." You can read the entire letter here: https://www.thefencepost.com/….

A potential strike was avoided, but a strike could begin as soon as Nov. 19 unless the "status quo" period is extended, TFI said. If an agreement is not reached or if the "status quo" period cannot be extended, Congress would need to act to prevent an embargo on fertilizer shipments that could begin as soon as Nov. 14.

The situation is compounded by continuing logistical and supply chain disruptions that remain unsolved.

"Congress must act and they must act immediately upon its return on Nov. 14," he said. "A rail stoppage is going to exacerbate inflation and hit U.S. consumers right before the holidays. Congress can avert this disaster, and they must do so quickly."

For more background on the potential rail strike and its impact beyond the fertilizer market, please read "Rail Shippers Fear a Strike is Near" here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Despite lower prices in recent months, all fertilizers continue to higher in price than one year earlier.

Urea is 1% higher, UAN28 is 7% more expensive, 10-34-0 is 8% higher, MAP is 9% more expensive, UAN32 is 13% higher, both DAP and potash are 14% more expensive and anhydrous is 28% more expensive compared to last year.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

European fertilizer manufacturers are restarting fertilizer production on the continent due to the recent sharp drop in natural gas prices, according to Dow Jones. You can read it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Dry
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Nov 1-5 2021	814	900	750	820
Nov 29-Dec 3 2021	836	918	777	873
Dec 27-31 2021	864	931	809	911
Jan 24-28 2022	877	936	814	910
Feb 21-25 2022	874	934	815	885
Mar 21-25 2022	1014	1018	850	976
Apr 18-22 2022	1050	1079	879	1012
May 16-20 2022	1059	1083	878	993
Jun 13-Jun 17 2022	1046	1074	879	961
Jul 11-15 2022	1030	1052	885	861
Aug 8-12 2022	982	1032	881	812
Sep 5-9 2022	952	1009	878	800
Oct 3-7 2022	934	997	869	826
Oct 31-Nov 4 2022	930	981	857	826
Liquid
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Nov 1-5 2021	702	1113	545	604
Nov 29-Dec 3 2021	756	1313	575	661
Dec 27-31 2021	795	1428	583	679
Jan 24-28 2022	817	1492	601	699
Feb 21-25 2022	837	1488	602	703
Mar 21-25 2022	881	1523	622	698
Apr 18-22 2022	906	1534	631	730
May 16-20 2022	906	1529	634	731
Jun 13-Jun 17 2022	905	1516	630	730
Jul 11-15 2022	904	1449	606	701
Aug 8-12 2022	881	1365	578	678
Sep 5-9 2022	866	1357	579	658
Oct 3-7 2022	813	1390	565	652
Oct 31-Nov 4 2022	759	1426	583	680

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(c) Copyright 2022 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.